** WTIN20 DEMS 180645 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 18-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA, COMORIN AREA,SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION PASSES THROUGH 10.0 DEG.N (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 180835 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 AM PST SAT NOV 18 2006 SERGIO CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER OR VERY NEAR THE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 45 KT. AN AMSU PASS AT 0509Z SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT WAS NOT CONCLUSIVE AS TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 00Z SUPPORTED 35-40 KT WINDS...BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE PRESENTATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 325/5. SUBSTANTIAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES...SO THE TRACK...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT RUN...WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK MORE TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE UPPER FLOW OVER SERGIO EVOLVES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THIS FLOW WILL HAVE A LOT TO SAY ABOUT HOW THE VERTICALLY COHERENCE OF THE CIRCULATION EVOLVES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONGER SHEAR THAN THE UKMET OR NOGAPS MODELS...PARTICULARLY AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE PRESENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...I HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA/CONU/FSSE CONSENSUS. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ONLY THE NOGAPS AND GFNI MODELS INDICATE A DIRECT THREAT TO MEXICO. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM SERGIO WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...WHERE IT COULD INDUCE SOME DANGEROUS RAINFALLS. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING MORE STRENGTHENING... AND IF THE UKMET/NOGAPS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FORECASTS ARE CORRECT THIS COULD HAPPEN. HOWEVER...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WINDS SEEM TO ME TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF ANALYSIS...SO I AM NOT WILLING TO MAKE THAT LARGE A CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST YET. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES ASSUME THAT SERGIO WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD ITS OWN AGAINST THE SHEAR FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE SUCCUMBING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 14.9N 103.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 103.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.3N 104.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 16.8N 105.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 180836 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0900 UTC SAT NOV 18 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 103.3W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 103.3W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 103.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.5N 103.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.3N 104.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 105.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 103.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 180846 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 AM PST SAT NOV 18 2006 SERGIO CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER OR VERY NEAR THE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 45 KT. AN AMSU PASS AT 0509Z SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT WAS NOT CONCLUSIVE AS TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 00Z SUPPORTED 35-40 KT WINDS...BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE PRESENTATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 325/5. SUBSTANTIAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES...SO THE TRACK...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT RUN...WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK MORE TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE UPPER FLOW OVER SERGIO EVOLVES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THIS FLOW WILL HAVE A LOT TO SAY ABOUT HOW THE VERTICAL COHERENCE OF THE CIRCULATION EVOLVES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONGER SHEAR THAN THE UKMET OR NOGAPS MODELS...PARTICULARLY AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE PRESENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...I HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA/CONU/FSSE CONSENSUS. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ONLY THE NOGAPS AND GFNI MODELS INDICATE A DIRECT THREAT TO MEXICO. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM SERGIO WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...WHERE IT COULD INDUCE SOME DANGEROUS RAINFALLS. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING MORE STRENGTHENING... AND IF THE UKMET/NOGAPS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FORECASTS ARE CORRECT THIS COULD HAPPEN. HOWEVER...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WINDS SEEM TO ME TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF ANALYSIS...SO I AM NOT WILLING TO MAKE THAT LARGE A CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST YET. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES ASSUME THAT SERGIO WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD ITS OWN AGAINST THE SHEAR FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE SUCCUMBING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 14.9N 103.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 103.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.3N 104.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 16.8N 105.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PHNC 181000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 14.7N 103.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 103.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.5N 103.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.3N 104.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.8N 105.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.0N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 17.5N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: POSITION AT 180900Z 14.9N 103.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 14 FEET. AT 111806 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 227 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z.//