** WTSR20 WSSS 171800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN31 PHNC 172200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 102.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 102.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.3N 102.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.8N 102.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.6N 103.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.3N 104.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 17.5N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT --- REMARKS: POSITION AT 170300Z 13.8N 102.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 180248 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 PM PST FRI NOV 17 2006 AFTER BECOMING ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY...A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN LIGHT OF THIS RECENT TREND...SERGIO IS MAINTAINED AS A 40-KT TROPICAL STORM. WHILE THE CYCLONE COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY/STABLE AIR ARE EXPECTED TO ULTIMATELY CAUSE WEAKENING. SERGIO HAS MADE AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/6. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES TOWARD THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN ANTICIPATION OF THE CYCLONE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. THIS TRACK IS IN BETWEEN THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.5N 103.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.1N 103.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 15.9N 104.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 106.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 20/0000Z 17.0N 107.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPZ21 KNHC 180248 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0300 UTC SAT NOV 18 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 103.1W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 103.1W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.1N 103.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.9N 104.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 106.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.0N 107.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 103.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPN31 PHNC 180400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 14.3N 102.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 102.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.1N 103.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.9N 104.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 16.5N 106.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.0N 107.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: POSITION AT 170300Z 13.8N 102.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND 190400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 180452 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.11.2006 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 102.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.11.2006 14.4N 102.6W MODERATE 12UTC 18.11.2006 15.1N 103.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.11.2006 15.9N 105.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.11.2006 16.2N 105.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.11.2006 16.4N 106.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.11.2006 16.6N 107.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.11.2006 17.8N 109.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.11.2006 18.3N 111.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.11.2006 19.8N 112.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.11.2006 20.5N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.11.2006 21.6N 115.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 23.11.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180452