** WTPZ41 KNHC 172035 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 PM PST FRI NOV 17 2006 SERGIO'S LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN DISLOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST BY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF THE CYCLONE'S POSITION TO THE SOUTH WAS MADE ONCE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING. SERGIO'S CURRENT MOTION IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE SOMEWHAT AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK GOES WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS MODEL IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...WHICH HAS AN UNREALISTIC INITIAL MOTION TO THE WEST. INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ABOUT 40 KT WERE PROVIDED BY THE CIRA AND CIMSS TECHNIQUES FROM A 1227 UTC AMSU PASS. HOWEVER...A BLEND OF THE DVORAK CI AND DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFGW SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF 45 TO 50 KT AT 18 UTC. GIVEN THE CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE AMSU VALUES...THE ANALYZED INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. DESPITE RATHER WARM SSTS...THE IMPACT OF WIND SHEAR AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE SERGIO TO WEAKEN. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE...BUT IS SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW THE GFDL MODEL WHICH...FOR SOME REASON...CONTINUES TO PREDICT SERGIO TO BE A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 14.0N 102.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 14.3N 102.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 15.6N 103.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 16.3N 104.2W 25 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 17.5N 107.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 172037 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 2100 UTC FRI NOV 17 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 102.6W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 102.6W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.5W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 102.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.6N 103.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 104.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 107.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 102.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA