** WTSR20 WSSS 170600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ31 KNHC 171431 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 AM PST FRI NOV 17 2006 ...SERGIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 AM PST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. REPEATING THE 700 AM PST POSITION...14.2 N...102.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SERGIO UNLESS WARRANTED. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ41 KNHC 171432 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 AM PST FRI NOV 17 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN DETERIORATING AND NOW CONSISTS OF A SHAPELESS MASS OF CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO MICROWAVE DATA OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WEST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ALREADY OVER THE SYSTEM AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THEREFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN. SERGIO APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 3 KNOTS BUT WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN SOON. FURTHERMORE...SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY SHOW THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN. THEREFORE... THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.2N 102.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 14.7N 102.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 103.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.5N 104.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 105.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 107.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 171432 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 1500 UTC FRI NOV 17 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 102.5W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 102.5W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 102.5W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.7N 102.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 103.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 104.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 105.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 107.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 102.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPN31 PHNC 171600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 102.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 102.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.7N 102.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.5N 103.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 16.5N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.0N 105.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.0N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 19.0N 109.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 20.0N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT --- REMARKS: POSITION AT 170300Z 13.8N 102.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 171600 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 016A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 102.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 102.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.7N 102.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.5N 103.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 16.5N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.0N 105.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.0N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 19.0N 109.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 20.0N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT --- REMARKS: POSITION AT 170300Z 13.8N 102.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION, CHANGED DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 171736 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.11.2006 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 102.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.11.2006 14.4N 102.6W MODERATE 00UTC 18.11.2006 14.7N 102.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.11.2006 14.8N 102.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.11.2006 15.2N 103.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.11.2006 15.6N 104.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.11.2006 15.7N 104.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.11.2006 15.9N 106.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.11.2006 16.4N 107.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.11.2006 17.4N 110.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.11.2006 18.3N 112.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.11.2006 20.3N 113.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.11.2006 21.2N 115.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.11.2006 21.1N 116.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171736