** WTIN20 DEMS 170620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 17-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA,WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND COMORIN AREA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION PASSES THROUGH 8.0 DEG.N (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 170832 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0900 UTC FRI NOV 17 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 102.8W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 102.8W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.6N 103.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.2N 103.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.9N 104.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.7N 105.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 102.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ31 KNHC 170832 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 AM PST FRI NOV 17 2006 ...SERGIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...OUTER RAINBANDS CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF MEXICO... INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 100 AM PST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...580 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 280 MILES...450 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SERGIO IS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. REPEATING THE 100 AM PST POSITION...14.0 N...102.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 170843 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 AM PST FRI NOV 17 2006 SERGIO APPEARS TO BE SHEARING APART THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT THE PRESENT TIME. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE STILL AT HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THEN...AND THUS SERGIO IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 350/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N112W...WITH BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE LOW NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE WESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ROUGHLY INTO TWO CLUSTERS. THE FIRST... WHICH INCLUDES THE CONU... THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THE NOGAPS...AND THE GFDL...CALL FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THAT MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SECOND...WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE UKMET...AND THE BAM SHALLOW...CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE FIRST CLUSTER. HOWEVER...IF SERGIO TOTALLY SHEARS APART LOW-LEVEL STEERING WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT LEADING TO A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE SECOND CLUSTER. SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE STRUCTURE OF SERGIO EVOLVES. WHILE SERGIO IS CURRENTLY IN A RATHER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING TO STOP IN 12-24 HR. THIS PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT WEAKER THAN...THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. AFTER 48 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY 120 HR. IF THE CURRENT SHEAR NOT DECREASE...SERGIO MAY DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE BASIS OF A 0100Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MEXICAN COAST...AND INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.0N 102.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.6N 103.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.2N 103.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 15.9N 104.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.7N 105.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 19.5N 109.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPN31 PHNC 171000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 015 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 21E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 14.0N 102.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 102.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.6N 103.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.2N 103.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.9N 104.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.7N 105.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 18.0N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 19.5N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.0N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 171000Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 102.9W. POSITION AT 170300Z 13.8N 102.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z AND 181000Z. // BT #0001