** WTSR20 WSSS 161800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ31 KNHC 170240 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 PM PST THU NOV 16 2006 ...SERGIO TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH... ...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO MANZANILLO... INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 PM PST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.7 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES ...605 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. REPEATING THE 700 PM PST POSITION...13.8 N...102.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPZ21 KNHC 170240 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0300 UTC FRI NOV 17 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.7W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.7W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 102.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.1N 103.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N 104.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.7N 105.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 102.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPZ31 KNHC 170240 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 PM PST THU NOV 16 2006 ...SERGIO TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH... ...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO MANZANILLO... INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 PM PST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.7 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES ...605 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. REPEATING THE 700 PM PST POSITION...13.8 N...102.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPZ21 KNHC 170240 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0300 UTC FRI NOV 17 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.7W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.7W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 102.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.1N 103.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N 104.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.7N 105.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 102.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPZ41 KNHC 170243 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 PM PST THU NOV 16 2006 AFTER WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY EARLIER TODAY...SERGIO APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED OVER THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT BASED ON THIS TREND. NONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BATTLE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SHEAR WILL BE EVEN STRONGER ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK. EVEN THE GFDL HAS FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGED SUCH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND BACKED OFF FROM ITS EARLIER ROBUST INTENSIFICATION. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FACTOR ARGUING FOR STRENGTHENING WOULD BE FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE TO FRACTURE AND FORM A CLOSED LOW...LEAVING A DOWNSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SERGIO. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SUCH A LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT COULD UNFOLD IN 1-2 DAYS. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES... SERGIO WOULD STILL HAVE TO OVERCOME INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE AIR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT SERGIO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT IT DOES PAY RESPECT TO THE POTENTIALLY LESS HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BY SHOWING AN INTENSITY PLATEAU AT 36-48 HOURS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS SHOW EVEN FASTER WEAKENING THAN INDICATED HERE. SERGIO CONTINUES ITS GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/4. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IMPARTING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO PRODUCE LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE DEEP AND SHALLOW LAYER STEERING FLOWS. ACCORDINGLY...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS. A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO TRACK ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN LINE WITH THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND DEEP BAM MODELS. CONVERSELY...A WEAKER AND MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM WOULD TEND TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE SHALLOW BAM MODELS. IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE SERGIO REMAINING A HURRICANE MUCH LONGER IN LIGHT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SERGIO IS AN EXCELLENT REMINDER THAT THE EFFECTS OF A HURRICANE CAN EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER...AS RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE BEEN AFFECTING COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. IT IS FOR THIS REASON...AND THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...THAT INTERESTS IN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 13.8N 102.7W 70 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 102.9W 65 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 103.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 104.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 105.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTNT80 EGRR 170513 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.11.2006 HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 102.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.11.2006 14.1N 102.5W MODERATE 12UTC 17.11.2006 14.4N 102.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 18.11.2006 14.8N 102.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.11.2006 15.1N 103.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.11.2006 15.6N 104.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.11.2006 15.9N 104.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.11.2006 16.2N 105.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.11.2006 16.2N 106.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.11.2006 16.7N 108.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.11.2006 17.4N 109.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.11.2006 18.5N 111.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.11.2006 18.9N 113.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.11.2006 19.2N 114.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170513