** WTPZ41 KNHC 162034 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 PM PST THU NOV 16 2006 SERGIO WEAKENED SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE LAST ADVISORY. HOWEVER...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WINDS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS MAKING A LITTLE BIT OF A COMEBACK AND THE CYCLONE HAS REDEVELOPED A CDO CLOUD PATTERN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 4.0/5.0 OR 65 KT/90 KT. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM IS ON A WEAKENING TREND AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. SERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 010/5. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A NORTHWARD MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST VARIES UPON THE MODEL REPRESENTATION OF THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE RIDGE. THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE THE CLOSEST TO THE COAST...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS. BECAUSE RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO MANZANILLO....A PUBLIC ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 13.6N 102.8W 70 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.5N 102.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.2N 103.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 17.0N 105.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 21.0N 108.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTPZ21 KNHC 162034 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 102.8W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 102.8W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 102.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.5N 102.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.2N 103.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.0N 105.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 102.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTPZ31 KNHC 162034 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 PM PST THU NOV 16 2006 ...RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AFFECTING THE COAST OF MEXICO... INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 100 PM PST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES ...620 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO MANZANILLO. THESE RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 100 PM PST POSITION...13.6 N...102.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM PST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI