** WTSR20 WSSS 160600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 161436 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 AM PST THU NOV 16 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN IS DEFINITELY NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY BUT IS WELL DEFINED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA. THE EYE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR IS INCREASING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON THE GRADUAL DECREASE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SERGIO COULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT THE CYCLONE IS HEADING TOWARD AN AREA OF INCREASING WIND SHEAR. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING...PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. SERGIO HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...SERGIO SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND AT THIS TIME...IT KEEPS THE CYCLONE ON A PATH PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST..AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL...IS STILL POSSIBLE. SO MEXICO STAY TUNED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 12.9N 103.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 103.0W 85 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 103.5W 80 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 109.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 161436 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 1500 UTC THU NOV 16 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 103.0W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 103.0W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.7N 103.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 103.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPN31 PHNC 161600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 12.7N 103.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 103.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 13.7N 103.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 14.5N 103.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.5N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 16.5N 105.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 18.5N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 20.0N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 21.5N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: POSITION AT 160300Z 12.3N 103.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z, 171000Z AND 171600Z. // ** WTNT80 EGRR 161744 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.11.2006 HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 102.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.11.2006 12.6N 102.7W MODERATE 00UTC 17.11.2006 14.4N 103.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.11.2006 14.7N 103.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.11.2006 15.1N 103.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.11.2006 15.5N 104.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.11.2006 16.2N 106.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.11.2006 16.7N 106.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.11.2006 17.1N 106.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.11.2006 17.4N 107.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.11.2006 17.8N 108.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.11.2006 19.3N 110.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.11.2006 20.5N 111.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.11.2006 21.3N 112.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 161744