** WTIN20 DEMS 160710 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA,EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION PASSES THROUGH 9.0 DEG.N (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 160830 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0900 UTC THU NOV 16 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 103.1W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 103.1W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.1N 103.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.1N 103.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.0N 103.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.9N 104.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 103.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 160844 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 AM PST THU NOV 16 2006 THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF SERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DEGRADE... WITH THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ELONGATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION SOMEWHAT RAGGED. AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0249Z SHOWED THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM DUE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE HURRICANE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. SERGIO APPEARS TO BE MAKING ITS FORECAST LEFT TURN...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 045/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 12N111W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THE LOW SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD FOR ANOTHER 24 HR OR SO...THEN TURN WESTWARD AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TO THE WEST OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. DESPITE THIS...A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS IN THE MODEL FORECAST TRACKS FOR SERGIO. THE GFDL AND THE NOGAPS ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND ARE THE FASTEST...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN 48-72 HR. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE UKMET IS DOWN THE MIDDLE AND SLOWER. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TURN SERGIO NORTHWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO IN CASE IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR WEAKENING DURING THAT PERIOD. THE MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER SERGIO FROM 24-72 HR...WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME SHEAR BUT LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG DIFFLUENCE OR DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS FORECAST WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME...WHILE THE GFDL MAINTAINS SERGIO AS A 90-100 KT HURRICANE. ON THE PREMISE THAT THE SHEAR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE DIVERGENCE... THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH AT A SLOWER PACE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WHILE THE DIVERGENCE DECREASES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 12.5N 103.1W 90 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 13.1N 103.0W 85 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.1N 103.3W 80 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 103.9W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 15.9N 104.8W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 106.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 107.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 110.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPN31 PHNC 161000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 103.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 103.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 13.1N 103.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.1N 103.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.0N 103.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.9N 104.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 18.0N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 19.5N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.0N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: POSITION AT 160300Z 12.3N 103.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z. //