** WTSR20 WSSS 151800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 160235 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 PM PST WED NOV 15 2006 AFTER LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLIER TODAY...SERGIO'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE EYE IS NO LONGER PRESENT AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A TEMPORARY FLUCTUATION OR THE BEGINNING OF A LONGER-TERM WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 90 KT IN LINE WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING AS PREVIOUSLY SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA HAS NOT CLOSED OFF AND THE WEAK RIDGE HAS NOT YET FORMED OVER MEXICO. INSTEAD...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS A RESULT...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS NOW BEARING DOWN ON THE CYCLONE...AND MAY ALREADY BE AFFECTING IT. NONETHELESS...THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SERGIO STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THIS INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SINCE ANY APPRECIABLE NORTHWARD MOTION WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE INTO A SEEMINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. INSTEAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL AND CALLS FOR NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND A DRY/STABLE AIR AIRMASS. SERGIO HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTING A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/4. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN IS COMPLEX...RESULTING IN QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONG THE AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS FLANKED ON THE EAST SIDE BY THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH SHOW SERGIO CLIPPING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. CONVERSELY...THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND NOW THE ECMWF MODEL SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT SERGIO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THUS TURN NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND MEDIUM BAM MODEL. WHILE IT IS MUCH TOO SOON TO SAY WHETHER SERGIO WILL OR WILL NOT AFFECT MEXICO... INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR THE HISTORICALLY CURIOUS...SERGIO IS THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN HURRICANE ON RECORD FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 12.3N 103.2W 90 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 12.7N 103.1W 90 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 103.3W 90 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 103.8W 85 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 15.9N 104.9W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 19.5N 107.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 21.0N 109.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPZ21 KNHC 160237 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0300 UTC THU NOV 16 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.7N 103.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.7N 103.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 103.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.9N 104.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 19.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 21.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 103.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPN31 PHNC 160400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 103.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 103.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 12.7N 103.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 13.7N 103.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 14.6N 103.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.9N 104.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 18.0N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 19.5N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 21.0N 109.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: POSITION AT 160300Z 12.3N 103.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 29 FEET. AT 111600 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 331 NM SW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z. // ** WTNT80 EGRR 160515 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.11.2006 HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 103.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.11.2006 12.3N 103.2W MODERATE 12UTC 16.11.2006 12.9N 102.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.11.2006 14.1N 102.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.11.2006 14.9N 103.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 18.11.2006 15.3N 104.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.11.2006 15.6N 105.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.11.2006 16.0N 105.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.11.2006 16.4N 105.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.11.2006 16.7N 105.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.11.2006 16.7N 106.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.11.2006 16.4N 107.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.11.2006 17.4N 109.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.11.2006 18.2N 111.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160515