** WTNT80 EGRR 151850 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.11.2006 HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 104.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.11.2006 11.9N 104.2W MODERATE 00UTC 16.11.2006 12.2N 103.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.11.2006 13.0N 103.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.11.2006 14.0N 103.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.11.2006 14.9N 103.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.11.2006 15.5N 104.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.11.2006 15.6N 105.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.11.2006 16.2N 107.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.11.2006 16.7N 106.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.11.2006 17.0N 106.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.11.2006 17.0N 107.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.11.2006 17.1N 107.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.11.2006 18.6N 109.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.0N 79.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.11.2006 11.0N 79.4W WEAK 00UTC 19.11.2006 11.5N 80.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.11.2006 10.6N 81.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.11.2006 11.0N 81.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.11.2006 11.0N 81.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.11.2006 10.8N 81.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.11.2006 10.3N 80.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151850 ** WTPZ21 KNHC 152031 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 2100 UTC WED NOV 15 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 103.6W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 103.6W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 103.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.0N 103.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.8N 103.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.0N 103.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.0N 104.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 103.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ41 KNHC 152031 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 PM PST WED NOV 15 2006 SERGIO HAS DEVELOPED A TYPICAL HURRICANE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A DISTINCT BUT SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 95 KNOTS. THERE IS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS SERGIO ENCOUNTERS HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 3 DAYS. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW TAKING A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN FORCING THE HURRICANE SOUTHEASTWARD IS FORECAST TO CHANGE AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. THIS EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE SERGIO ON A VERY SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IN FACT BRINGS THE CYCLONE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CABO CORRIENTES ON MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 12.0N 103.6W 95 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 12.0N 103.3W 100 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 12.8N 103.4W 105 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 14.0N 103.7W 100 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 104.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 16.5N 105.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 107.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPN31 PHNC 152200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 12.0N 103.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 103.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 12.0N 103.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 12.8N 103.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.0N 103.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.0N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.5N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 18.0N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 20.0N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 103.6W. THIS MESSAGE SUPERSEDES INTERIM FORECAST ADVISORY #8. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 29 FEET. AT 111518 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 359 NM SW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z.//