** WTSR20 WSSS 150600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 151433 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 1500 UTC WED NOV 15 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 103.9W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 103.9W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.2N 103.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.4N 103.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.0N 104.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 103.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ41 KNHC 151433 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 AM PST WED NOV 15 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 AND 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND IN FACT...AN 1152Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A SMALL EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 65 KNOTS. SERGIO HAS BECOME THE 10TH HURRICANE OF THE 2006 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. SERGIO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE SERGIO TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. BOTH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND TRACK GUIDANCE SHOW SERGIO STILL OVER WATER BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS. THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 12.1N 103.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.2N 103.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 12.4N 103.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 15.0N 104.3W 80 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPN31 PHNC 151600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 21E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 12.3N 104.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 104.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 12.2N 103.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 12.4N 103.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 13.5N 103.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.0N 104.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 16.5N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 18.0N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 19.0N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 103.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 24 FEET. AT 111512 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 365 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 151635 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 900 AM PST WED NOV 15 2006 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REFLECT THAT SERGIO HAS INTENSIFIED TO 85 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PINHOLE EYE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK-T-NUMBERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN A CONSERVATIVELY ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AND THE INITIAL AND 12 HOUR WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK IS INDICATED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1700Z 12.1N 103.7W 85 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.2N 103.7W 90 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 12.4N 103.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W 90 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 15.0N 104.3W 90 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI ** WTPZ21 KNHC 151636 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 1700 UTC WED NOV 15 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 103.7W AT 15/1700Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 103.7W AT 15/1700Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.2N 103.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.4N 103.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.0N 104.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 103.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA