** WTIN20 DEMS 150640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) THE SOUTH WESTWERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPZ41 KNHC 150834 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 AM PST WED NOV 15 2006 MICROWAVE DATA FROM WINDSAT AT 0057Z AND SSM/I AT 0305Z SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OF SERGIO IS ASYMMETRIC...CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF LESS THAN 10 KT...WHICH SEEMS INSUFFICIENT TO EXPLAIN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AFFECT THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY POOR TO THE NORTHWEST AND FAIR TO GOOD ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 135/1. SERGIO IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST...AND SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND BECOME A CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 24-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SERGIO TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 48 HR...THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF AN EAST-WEST RIDGE FORECAST TO FORM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NOGAPS TAKES SERGIO INLAND OVER MEXICO INTO THE WESTERLIES BEFORE THE RIDGE FORMS. THE UKMET TRAPS THE SYSTEM IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO THROUGH 120 HR... WITH THE OTHER MODELS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES IN CALLING FOR A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AGREES BEST WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS... CALLING FOR A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM 48-120 HR. THE NEW TRACK HAS ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE LACK OF A CLOSED EYEWALL AND A LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGEST A DECREASED CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. INDEED...THE SHIPS MODEL NO LONGER CALLS FOR SERGIO TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS SHEAR APPEARS TOO STRONG COMPARED TO THE FORECAST 200 MB WINDS OF THE GFS...AND THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE STILL FORECAST SERGIO TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST A DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO FORM NEAR SERGIO FROM 24-72 HR. WHAT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON IS HOW MUCH SHEAR THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE. AFTER 72 HR...THE MODELS AGREE THAT SERGIO SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR...IF IT IS AS FAR NORTH AS FORECAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 12.6N 104.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 12.5N 104.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 13.1N 103.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 13.9N 103.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 15.1N 104.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 105.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 19.0N 106.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 150834 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0900 UTC WED NOV 15 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 104.2W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 104.2W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 104.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 12.5N 104.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.1N 103.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.9N 103.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.1N 104.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 105.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 104.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPN31 PHNC 151000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 12.7N 104.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 104.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 12.5N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.1N 103.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 13.9N 103.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 15.1N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 16.5N 104.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 18.0N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 19.0N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 104.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 22 FEET. AT 111506 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 355 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z.//