** WTSR20 WSSS 141800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 150236 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 PM PST TUE NOV 14 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT SERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN LINE WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAKING SERGIO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST GETS TRICKY AS THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF SERGIO WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE INTO AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIVERGES CONSIDERABLY. THE GFDL MODEL INDICATES ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAKING SERGIO A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS WHILE THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SHOW WEAKENING BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM. SINCE THE GFDL MODEL CAN SOMETIMES BE RATHER INSENSITIVE TO VERTICAL SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE LATTER MODELS. SERGIO HAS SHOWN LITTLE OR NO MOTION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A VERY WEAK STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...ALBEIT SLOWLY...AS A WEAK MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A WEAK RIDGE FORMS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. UNFORTUNATELY...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OR DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE AS ANY APPRECIABLE NORTHWARD MOTION WOULD TAKE SERGIO INTO AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A STRONG AND DEEP CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL. CONVERSELY...A WEAK AND SHALLOW CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. SINCE THE GFS DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A REPRESENTATIVE VORTEX AND THE GFDL'S INTENSITY APPEARS TOO STRONG GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED VERTICAL SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 12.8N 104.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 12.8N 104.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 13.1N 103.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 14.6N 103.6W 80 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 16.5N 104.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 106.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPZ21 KNHC 150236 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0300 UTC WED NOV 15 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.3W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.3W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 12.8N 104.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.1N 103.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.6N 103.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.5N 104.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 106.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPN31 PHNC 150400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 12.8N 104.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 104.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 12.8N 104.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 13.1N 103.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.6N 103.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 14.6N 103.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 16.5N 104.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 17.5N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 18.5N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 150400Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 104.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 150540 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.11.2006 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 104.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.11.2006 12.6N 104.4W WEAK 12UTC 15.11.2006 12.3N 103.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.11.2006 13.3N 103.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.11.2006 14.4N 103.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.11.2006 15.7N 103.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.11.2006 16.2N 103.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.11.2006 16.3N 104.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.11.2006 16.0N 104.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.11.2006 16.2N 105.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.11.2006 16.6N 105.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.11.2006 15.6N 105.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.11.2006 16.3N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.11.2006 15.6N 106.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150540