** WTPZ41 KNHC 142054 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 PM PST TUE NOV 14 2006 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF SERGIO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A DISTINCT CURVED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 45 KT AT 1800 UTC. SINCE THEN...THE BANDING FEATURE AND OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND IT APPEARS THAT AN EYE IS TRYING TO FORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SERGIO HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY...AND RECENTLY HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE CURRENTLY WEAK STEERING PATTERN TO PERSIST. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES. ONE SCENARIO...FAVORED BY THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...MAINTAINS A WEAK STEERING PATTERN AND MEANDERS SERGIO OFF THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO. A SECOND SCENARIO...OFFERED BY THE GFDL...ECMWF...AND FSSE...TAKES THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WEST OF THE BAJA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SECOND OPTION AND IS JUST EAST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY RAPID...WITH LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND A WARM DEEP OCEAN. THE GFDL IS THE MOST ROBUST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND MAKES SERGIO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSERVATIVE... TAKING THE CYCLONE ONLY TO 70 KT IN 2 DAYS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE TWO EXTREMES...AND IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 12.8N 104.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 13.1N 104.8W 70 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 13.3N 104.9W 80 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 105.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 105.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 16.5N 105.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTPZ21 KNHC 142055 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 2100 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.5W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.5W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 104.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.1N 104.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.3N 104.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N 105.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 105.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 16.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 104.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTPN31 PHNC 142200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 13.0N 104.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - STATIONARY POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 104.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.1N 104.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.1N 104.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.3N 104.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.0N 105.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.5N 105.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.5N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 18.0N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z.//