** WTSR20 WSSS 140600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN31 PGTW 141500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 023 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 23W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 110.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 110.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.7N 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.2N 109.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 110.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 14114Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE DISORGANIZED. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TD 23W IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC IS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WHILE THE CONVECTION IS TRACKING NORTHWARD IN AN INCREASINGLY HIGHER VERT- ICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 9 FEET.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 141430 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 800 AM PDT TUE NOV 14 2006 AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 09Z SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CORE BAND. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA ...AND 35 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THE STRONG MICROWAVE PRESENTATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ESTIMATE...AND THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1961 THAT TWO TROPICAL STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN IN NOVEMBER...AND ONLY FIVE STORMS HAVE FORMED LATER IN THE SEASON THAN SERGIO. A REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL MOTION MIGHT BE 315/3...SLOWER THAN BEFORE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ALREADY WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN...AND ALL OF THE PRIMARY DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A LOOP OR A STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO RESUME. WITHIN THIS BASIC SCENARIO THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD...HOWEVER...WITH THE GFDL ON THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE ECMWF ON THE LEFT WELL OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT LATER ON TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SEEM TO CONFIRM THE GOOD CORE BANDING STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...AND SERGIO IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH LIGHT SHEAR. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 29C...AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOIST. I DON'T SEE ANY REASON WHY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT DEVELOP FURTHER IN THE SHORT RUN...AND PERHAPS QUITE RAPIDLY. THE SHIPS R-I INDEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AS DOES THE GFDL MODEL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND IS CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. WHILE THERE IS UNFAVORABLE SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...THE CURRENT FORECAST PRESUMES THAT SERGIO WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE SHEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.2N 104.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.4N 104.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 13.5N 105.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 13.5N 105.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 14.0N 105.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 15.5N 105.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 18.5N 107.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE ** WTPZ21 KNHC 141430 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 1500 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 104.5W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 104.5W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 104.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.4N 104.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.5N 105.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.5N 105.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.0N 105.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 104.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 141457 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 AM PST TUE NOV 14 2006 CORRECTED TO CHANGE PRODUCT TIME FROM DAYLIGHT TO STANDARD TIME. AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 09Z SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CORE BAND. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA ...AND 35 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THE STRONG MICROWAVE PRESENTATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ESTIMATE...AND THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1961 THAT TWO TROPICAL STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN IN NOVEMBER...AND ONLY FIVE STORMS HAVE FORMED LATER IN THE SEASON THAN SERGIO. A REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL MOTION MIGHT BE 315/3...SLOWER THAN BEFORE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ALREADY WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN...AND ALL OF THE PRIMARY DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A LOOP OR A STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO RESUME. WITHIN THIS BASIC SCENARIO THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD...HOWEVER...WITH THE GFDL ON THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE ECMWF ON THE LEFT WELL OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT LATER ON TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SEEM TO CONFIRM THE GOOD CORE BANDING STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...AND SERGIO IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH LIGHT SHEAR. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 29C...AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOIST. I DON'T SEE ANY REASON WHY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT DEVELOP FURTHER IN THE SHORT RUN...AND PERHAPS QUITE RAPIDLY. THE SHIPS R-I INDEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AS DOES THE GFDL MODEL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND IS CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. WHILE THERE IS UNFAVORABLE SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...THE CURRENT FORECAST PRESUMES THAT SERGIO WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE SHEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.2N 104.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.4N 104.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 13.5N 105.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 13.5N 105.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 14.0N 105.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 15.5N 105.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 18.5N 107.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PHNC 141600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 13.1N 104.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 104.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 13.4N 104.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.5N 105.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 13.5N 105.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 14.0N 105.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.5N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 17.0N 106.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 18.5N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 141600Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 104.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 141719 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.11.2006 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 105.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.11.2006 13.0N 105.2W WEAK 00UTC 15.11.2006 12.7N 105.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.11.2006 12.6N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.11.2006 13.3N 103.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.11.2006 14.4N 103.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.11.2006 15.4N 103.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.11.2006 15.7N 103.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.11.2006 15.7N 104.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.11.2006 15.7N 104.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.11.2006 15.7N 105.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 19.11.2006 15.5N 104.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.11.2006 15.3N 104.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.11.2006 15.2N 104.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141719