** WTPN31 PHNC 140600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 12.7N 104.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 104.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 13.4N 105.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.0N 105.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 14.5N 106.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.0N 106.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.0N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.0N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 17.5N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 140000Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 104.0W MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140500Z IS 10 FEET. AT 111400 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 355 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z.// ** WTIN20 DEMS 140615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA(.) THE WESTWERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 140600 UTC 00HR 17.5N 111.1E 1004HPA 15M/S P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 19.2N 108.9E 1005HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 140600UTC 18N 111E MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 1006HPA = ** WTKO20 RKSL 140600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TD 0620 CHEBI ANALYSIS POSITION 140600UTC 18.0N 111.0E MOVEMENT WNW 10KT PRES 1006HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 140745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 140745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPN31 PGTW 140900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 111.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 111.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.8N 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.5N 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 20.2N 108.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 110.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 140832 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0900 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 104.6W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 104.6W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.2N 105.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.6N 105.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.9N 105.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.4N 106.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 16.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 104.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 140843 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 200 AM PDT TUE NOV 14 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. A SMALL AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER AT THE END OF A BAND THAT WRAPS IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 25 KT FOR AFWA. BASED ON THAT...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION TO 300/5. IT IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY TROUGHS CROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES WEST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES TO CREATE A LIGHT NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...THE DEPRESSION WOULD MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND INDEED THE GFDL CALLS A LOOPING TRACK DURING THIS PERIOD. STARTING IN ABOUT 72 HR...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD NEAR CLARION ISLAND AND BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ACQUIRE A FASTER NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO REACH CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO IN 96-108 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THE TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A GENERALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF 15N NEAR THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 96 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST IT TO PEAK JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60-72 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY...BUT IS STILL BELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FIRST...THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH THAT THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR ACCORDING TO THE INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL. SECOND...ANY MOTION THAT DELAYS THE CYCLONE REACHING THE STRONGER SHEAR NORTH OF 15N WOULD ALLOW IT MORE TIME IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUS...THE SYSTEM COULD GET CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST HERE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 13.0N 104.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 13.2N 105.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 13.6N 105.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 13.9N 105.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 14.4N 106.1W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 16.5N 107.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 12.8N 104.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 104.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.2N 105.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.6N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.9N 105.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.4N 106.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 15.5N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 16.5N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 17.5N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 104.6W MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 10 FEET. AT 111406 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 355 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 141045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 141045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA.