** WTSR20 WSSS 131800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 140000 UTC 00HR 17.3N 111.5E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 18.7N 109.2E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 140000 *** WARNING 140000. WARNING VALID 150000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0620 CHEBI (0620) 1004 HPA AT 17.1N 111.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 17.1N 108.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1008 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 140000UTC 17.1N 111.6E FAIR MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 80NM FORECAST 24HF 150000UTC 17.1N 108.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 140100 UTC 00HR 17.3N 111.4E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 140145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 140145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 140300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 111.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 111.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.0N 110.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.4N 109.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.0N 108.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 20.0N 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 111.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 140200 UTC 00HR 17.3N 111.4E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 140300 UTC 00HR 17.4N 111.4E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 140300UTC 17.5N 111.2E FAIR MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 80NM FORECAST 24HF 150300UTC 18.0N 109.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 140400 UTC 00HR 17.5N 111.3E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 140441 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 1000 PM PDT MON NOV 13 2006 OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND BANDING FEATURES ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE EVIDENT. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT OVER THE AREA AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WHICH WOULD REVERSE THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SINCE WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT MODEL IS DIAGNOSING STRONG ENOUGH SHEAR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 300/7. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE BOTH A POOR INITIALIZATION AND AN UNREALISTIC EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS THEY SEEM TO OVEREMPHASIZE A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT THE MOMENT...THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET IS TO FORECAST A SLOW...AND GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD... MOTION THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0500Z 12.9N 104.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 14.0N 105.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 106.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 15.0N 106.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 140441 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0500 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 104.5W AT 14/0500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 104.5W AT 14/0500Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.0N 105.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 106.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 104.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN ** WTSS20 VHHH 140445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 140445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 140500 UTC 00HR 17.5N 111.2E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 140545 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.11.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 103.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.11.2006 13.3N 103.7W WEAK 12UTC 14.11.2006 12.9N 103.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.11.2006 13.8N 102.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.11.2006 13.0N 101.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.11.2006 13.9N 99.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.11.2006 13.6N 99.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.11.2006 14.4N 101.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.11.2006 14.4N 102.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.11.2006 14.3N 102.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.11.2006 14.8N 103.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.11.2006 15.9N 104.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.11.2006 16.3N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.11.2006 15.9N 104.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140545