** WTSR20 WSSS 130600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 131200 *** WARNING 131200. WARNING VALID 141200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0620 CHEBI (0620) 992 HPA AT 16.3N 113.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 17.1N 111.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 18.3N 109.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 131200UTC 16.3N 113.0E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 141200UTC 17.1N 111.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 151200UTC 18.3N 109.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 16.5N 112.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 17.9N 110.3E 992HPA 20M/S P+48HR 19.7N 109.0E 1000HPA 10M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 16.6N 112.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 17.9N 110.3E 992HPA 20M/S P+48HR 19.7N 109.0E 1000HPA 10M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 131300 UTC 00HR 16.6N 112.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 131345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 131400 UTC 00HR 16.7N 112.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 131500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 16.2N 112.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 112.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.8N 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 17.4N 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.0N 109.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 18.9N 108.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 20.1N 107.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 111.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 23W IS LOCATED UNDER MODERATE, SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS SHEARING DEEP CONVECTION NORTHWARD. THE SYSTEM CENTER REMAINS LOCATED SOUTH OF THIS FLARING CONVECTION. THE 13/06Z AND 13/12Z STORM POSITIONS ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON THE 130555Z AMSR-E 37 GHZ, 131002Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ, AND THE 131206Z SSMI IMAGES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 131500 UTC 00HR 16.7N 112.5E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 131500UTC 16.3N 112.9E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 141500UTC 17.2N 111.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 151200UTC 18.3N 109.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 131600 UTC 00HR 16.7N 112.3E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 131200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL) ON TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) AT 12 UTC IS VALID TILL 36 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 131645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (106.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (106.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 131700 UTC 00HR 16.6N 112.1E 994HPA 20M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 131722 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.11.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.6N 103.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.11.2006 12.6N 103.3W WEAK 12UTC 14.11.2006 12.1N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.11.2006 12.7N 102.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.11.2006 12.6N 102.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.11.2006 12.9N 101.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.11.2006 13.8N 101.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.11.2006 14.2N 101.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.11.2006 14.6N 102.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.11.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 131722