** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC 00HR 15.9N 113.1E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.9N 110.5E 992HPA 20M/S P+48HR 18.7N 108.4E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 130635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND COMORIN AREA (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 10 DEG OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 130600 *** WARNING 130600. WARNING VALID 140600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0620 CHEBI (0620) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 992 HPA AT 15.9N 113.2E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 16.4N 110.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 17.7N 108.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 19.7N 107.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 130600UTC 15.9N 113.2E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 140600UTC 16.4N 110.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 150600UTC 17.7N 108.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 160600UTC 19.7N 107.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 130600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TS 0620 CHEBI ANALYSIS POSITION 130600UTC 15.9N 113.2E MOVEMENT NNW 5KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 49KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 140600UTC 16.9N 110.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 150600UTC 18.2N 108.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 998HPA 41KT 72HR POSITION 160600UTC 19.8N 107.7E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 130900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 113.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 113.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.4N 111.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 17.1N 110.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 17.9N 110.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.7N 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 20.0N 108.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 112.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 130745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 130600 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 130600 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 130900 UTC 00HR 16.2N 112.9E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 17.8N 110.5E 992HPA 20M/S P+48HR 19.4N 109.5E 1000HPA 10M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL ON TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) AT 06 UTC IS VALID TILL 48 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 130900UTC 16.0N 113.1E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 140900UTC 16.5N 111.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 150600UTC 17.7N 108.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 160600UTC 19.7N 107.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 131000 UTC 00HR 16.4N 112.7E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 131045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 131100 UTC 00HR 16.5N 112.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NW 15KM/H=