** WTSR20 WSSS 121800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 15.5N 113.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.3N 110.2E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 17.6N 108.3E 995HPA 20M/S P+72HR 19.7N 107.5E 998HPA 16M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 130000 *** WARNING 130000. WARNING VALID 140000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0620 CHEBI (0620) 990 HPA AT 15.3N 113.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 15.7N 109.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 16.7N 107.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 18.1N 105.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 130000UTC 15.3N 113.6E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 140000UTC 15.7N 109.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 150000UTC 16.7N 107.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 160000UTC 18.1N 105.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 0620 CHEBI (0620) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME WARMER FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (107.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (107.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (107.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 130300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 113.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 113.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.2N 112.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.9N 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 17.7N 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.5N 109.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 19.8N 108.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 20.9N 108.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 113.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 15 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 130300 UTC 00HR 15.7N 113.3E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 130300UTC 15.6N 113.4E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 140300UTC 15.9N 109.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 150000UTC 16.7N 107.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 160000UTC 18.1N 105.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 130300 *** WARNING 130300. WARNING VALID 140300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0620 CHEBI (0620) 990 HPA AT 15.6N 113.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 15.9N 109.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 130445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 130514 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.11.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.2N 115.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.11.2006 12.2N 115.6W WEAK 12UTC 13.11.2006 12.9N 115.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.11.2006 13.8N 116.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.11.2006 14.5N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.11.2006 14.8N 116.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.11.2006 14.1N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.11.2006 13.6N 116.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.11.2006 12.9N 116.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.11.2006 12.6N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.11.2006 12.6N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.11.2006 11.9N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.11.2006 11.8N 112.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.11.2006 11.8N 112.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.4N 102.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.11.2006 12.4N 102.7W WEAK 12UTC 14.11.2006 12.5N 101.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.11.2006 12.8N 101.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.11.2006 13.2N 101.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.11.2006 13.1N 100.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.11.2006 14.3N 100.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.11.2006 14.8N 101.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.11.2006 14.7N 102.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 18.11.2006 14.5N 103.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.11.2006 14.2N 103.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.11.2006 14.8N 102.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 130514