** WTPQ20 BABJ 121200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC 00HR 15.2N 115.1E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 200KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 15.2N 110.9E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 15.6N 108.4E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 16.5N 106.3E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 121200UTC 15.2N 115.0E FAIR MOVE W 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 131200UTC 15.4N 111.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 141200UTC 16.2N 108.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 151200UTC 17.2N 106.3E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 121200 *** WARNING 121200. WARNING VALID 131200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0620 CHEBI (0620) 985 HPA AT 15.2N 115.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 15.4N 111.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 16.2N 108.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 17.2N 106.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 121500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 115.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 115.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.3N 112.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.9N 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.5N 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 17.3N 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 18.5N 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.9N 107.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 114.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// BT #0001 ** WTSS20 VHHH 121345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 121500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 115.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 115.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.3N 112.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.9N 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.5N 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 17.3N 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 18.5N 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.9N 107.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 114.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// BT #0001 ** WTPN31 PGTW 121500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 115.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 115.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.3N 112.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.9N 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.5N 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 17.3N 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 18.5N 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.9N 107.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 114.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// BT #0001 ** WTPN31 PGTW 121500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 115.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 115.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.3N 112.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.9N 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.5N 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 17.3N 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 18.5N 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.9N 107.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 114.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// BT #0001 ** WTPH20 RPMM 121200 *** TTT STORM WARNING 17 (FINAL) AT 1200 12 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHEBI)(0620) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 131200 ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE FROM WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 121200 *** TTT STORM WARNING 17 (FINAL) AT 1200 12 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHEBI) (0620) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.2N 115.0E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 08MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 28MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131200 15.4N 111.2E WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE FROM WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH RPLL 121200 *** TTT STORM WARNING 17 (FINAL) AT 1200 12 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHEBI) (0620) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.2N 115.0E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 08MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 28MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131200 15.4N 111.2E WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE FROM WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 121500 UTC 00HR 15.2N 114.3E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 200KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR W 25KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 121500 *** WARNING 121500. WARNING VALID 131500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0620 CHEBI (0620) 985 HPA AT 15.2N 114.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 15.5N 110.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 121500UTC 15.2N 114.3E FAIR MOVE W 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 131500UTC 15.5N 110.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 141200UTC 16.2N 108.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 151200UTC 17.2N 106.3E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 121645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (108.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (106.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (108.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (106.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 121703 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.11.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.7N 102.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.11.2006 11.7N 102.8W WEAK 12UTC 14.11.2006 11.4N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.11.2006 11.1N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.11.2006 10.9N 103.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.11.2006 11.8N 101.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.11.2006 13.2N 101.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.11.2006 13.4N 101.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.11.2006 14.1N 101.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.11.2006 15.9N 102.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.11.2006 16.4N 104.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121703