** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC 00HR 15.0N 116.8E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 240KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 15.5N 112.6E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 17.0N 109.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 18.8N 107.8E 985HPA 28M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 120700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL,ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) THE WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0620 CHEBI (0620) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 120600UTC 15.0N 116.7E FAIR MOVE W 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 130600UTC 14.9N 111.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 140600UTC 15.5N 109.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 150600UTC 15.9N 106.9E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 120600 *** WARNING 120600. WARNING VALID 130600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0620 CHEBI (0620) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985 HPA AT 15.0N 116.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 14.9N 111.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 15.5N 109.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 15.9N 106.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 120600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME STS 0620 CHEBI ANALYSIS POSITION 120600UTC 15.0N 116.7E MOVEMENT W 11KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 130600UTC 15.3N 113.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 140600UTC 16.9N 110.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 49KT 72HR POSITION 150600UTC 18.6N 108.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 41KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTIN20 DEMS 120700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) THE WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ30 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 0620 CHEBI (0620) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120600 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 120900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 116.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 116.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.0N 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.6N 112.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.4N 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 17.1N 110.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.4N 108.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 19.7N 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 116.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.// BT #0001 ** WTSS20 VHHH 120745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120600 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 120745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120600 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTPH20 RPMM 120600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 16 AT 0600 12 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHEBI) {0620} DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 130600 ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTJP31 RJTD 120900 *** WARNING 120900. WARNING VALID 130900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0620 CHEBI (0620) 985 HPA AT 15.1N 115.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 15.1N 111.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 120900UTC 15.1N 115.8E FAIR MOVE W 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 130900UTC 15.1N 111.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 140600UTC 15.5N 109.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 150600UTC 15.9N 106.9E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 120900 UTC 00HR 15.3N 115.9E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 200KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 15.8N 112.2E 985HPA 28M/S= ** WTPH RPLL 120600 *** T T T STORM WARNING 16 AT 0600 12 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHIBE) (0620) DOWGRADED FROM TYPHOON WAS ESTMTD BASED ON SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.1 N 116.8E FORECASTTO MOVE WEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTMTD CNTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS MAXWNDS 28MPS NEAR CNTER 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER FORECAST POSITION AT 130600 15.0N 112.6E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREAARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH RPLL 120600 *** T T T STORM WARNING 16 AT 0600 12 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHIBE) (0620) DOWGRADED FROM TYPHOON WAS ESTMTD BASED ON SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.1 N 116.8E FORECASTTO MOVE WEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTMTD CNTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS MAXWNDS 28MPS NEAR CNTER 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER FORECAST POSITION AT 130600 15.0N 112.6E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREAARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTSS20 VHHH 121045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 120900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 120900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.