** WTSR20 WSSS 110600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 111200 UTC 00HR 16.0N 119.7E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 250KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 15.8N 115.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 16.0N 112.5E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 16.9N 109.7E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 111200UTC 16.1N 119.8E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 121200UTC 15.6N 116.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 131200UTC 15.9N 113.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 141200UTC 16.7N 112.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 111200 *** WARNING 111200. WARNING VALID 121200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0620 CHEBI (0620) 960 HPA AT 16.1N 119.8E LUZON MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 15.6N 116.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 15.9N 113.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 16.7N 112.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 111345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 111200 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 111345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 111200 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 111500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 119.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 119.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 15.5N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 15.5N 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.8N 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.2N 111.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 17.2N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.9N 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 18.5N 107.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 118.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH- WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 111200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 13 AT 1200 11 NOVEMBER TYPHOON(CHEBI)(0620) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE NINEPOINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO ONE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NIE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO ONE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 121200 ONE FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPZ25 KNHC 111449 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202006 1500 UTC SAT NOV 11 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 113.2W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 113.2W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 112.9W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 12.5N 113.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 13.3N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.1N 114.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.9N 114.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.3N 114.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N 115.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N 115.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ45 KNHC 111500 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202006 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 11 2006 EVEN THOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED. QUIKSCAT DATA JUST RECEIVED FROM A 1300 UTC OVERPASS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM BARELY HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND IS LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY AN ELONGATED TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH SYSTEMS AT THIS STAGE...THE QUIKSCAT DATA ARE INCONCLUSIVE REGARDING THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS...WITH RETRIEVED WINDS OF 20-25 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND JUST A FEW 35-KT WINDS BENEATH THE CONVECTION THAT COULD EASILY BE RAIN-INFLATED. GIVEN THE QUIKSCAT DATA...AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. IF THE SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP A LESS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD APPEAR TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN ANTICIPATING THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 260/5...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE CENTER WITHIN THE ELONGATED TROUGH. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...AND MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THEREAFTER...MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN AND PERHAPS INDUCE A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 12.3N 113.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 12.5N 113.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 13.3N 114.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 14.1N 114.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 14.9N 114.6W 35 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 15.3N 114.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 15/1200Z 15.5N 115.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/1200Z 15.5N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 111500 UTC 00HR 16.0N 119.6E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 250KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 111600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 12.4N 112.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 112.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 12.5N 113.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 13.3N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.1N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.9N 114.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.3N 114.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 111600Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 113.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112200Z, 120400Z, 121000Z AND 121600Z. // ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 111500UTC 16.1N 119.6E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 121500UTC 15.6N 115.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 131200UTC 15.9N 113.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 141200UTC 16.7N 112.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 111500 *** WARNING 111500. WARNING VALID 121500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0620 CHEBI (0620) 960 HPA AT 16.1N 119.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 15.6N 115.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 111645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 111500 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (114.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 111645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 111500 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (114.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 111709 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.11.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 112.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.11.2006 12.6N 112.8W WEAK 00UTC 12.11.2006 12.5N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.11.2006 13.0N 115.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.11.2006 13.7N 116.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.11.2006 14.1N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.11.2006 14.8N 118.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.11.2006 15.6N 120.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.11.2006 15.3N 121.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.11.2006 14.9N 123.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.11.2006 14.1N 124.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.11.2006 DISSIPATED THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111709 ** WTNT80 EGRR 111709 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.11.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 112.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.11.2006 12.6N 112.8W WEAK 00UTC 12.11.2006 12.5N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.11.2006 13.0N 115.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.11.2006 13.7N 116.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.11.2006 14.1N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.11.2006 14.8N 118.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.11.2006 15.6N 120.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.11.2006 15.3N 121.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.11.2006 14.9N 123.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.11.2006 14.1N 124.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.11.2006 DISSIPATED THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111709