** WTPQ20 BABJ 110600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 110600 UTC 00HR 16.0N 120.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 15.8N 117.3E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 15.9N 113.7E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 16.1N 110.3E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 110656 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) THE WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 110600 *** WARNING 110600. WARNING VALID 120600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0620 CHEBI (0620) 960 HPA AT 16.1N 120.3E LUZON MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 15.8N 117.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 15.7N 115.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 16.4N 112.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 110600UTC 16.1N 120.3E GOOD MOVE W 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 120600UTC 15.8N 117.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 130600UTC 15.7N 115.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 140600UTC 16.4N 112.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 110600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0620 CHEBI ANALYSIS POSITION 110600UTC 16.1N 120.3E MOVEMENT W 12KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 84KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 120600UTC 15.7N 117.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 87KT 48HR POSITION 130600UTC 15.6N 115.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 84KT 72HR POSITION 140600UTC 16.2N 112.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 80KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 0620 CHEBI (0620) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ25 KNHC 110802 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202006 0900 UTC SAT NOV 11 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 113.0W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 113.0W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 13.3N 113.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.7N 116.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 15.0N 117.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ45 KNHC 110802 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202006 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 11 2006 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE TROPICAL LOW SITUATED ABOUT 620 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND AN 11/0156Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 25-30 KT NON-RAIN FLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT AND NUMEROUS 40-50 KT RAIN FLAGGED HI-RES WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THE TIME OF THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/04 KT...BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF QUIKSCAT AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THREE BAM MODELS...THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR TD-20E TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BROAD COL REGION IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS ...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN AS DEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW BAND ABOUT 6 DEGREES WIDE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. AS TD-20E MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THIS NARROW COMFORT ZONE AND GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR BY 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A 35-40 KT TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY WAS HELD UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL DUE THE LATTER FORECAST BEING BASED ON THE MUCH FASTER BAMM MODEL...WHICH MOVES TD-20E OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO THE STRONGER SHEAR MUCH SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 13.0N 113.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 13.3N 113.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 114.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 15.7N 116.3W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/0600Z 15.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTSS20 VHHH 110745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110600 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 110745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110600 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTPZ45 KNHC 110804 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202006 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 11 2006 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ONE CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE TROPICAL LOW SITUATED ABOUT 620 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND AN 11/0156Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 25-30 KT NON-RAIN FLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT AND NUMEROUS 40-50 KT RAIN FLAGGED HI-RES WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THE TIME OF THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/04 KT...BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF QUIKSCAT AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THREE BAM MODELS...THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR TD-20E TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BROAD COL REGION IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS ...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN AS DEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW BAND ABOUT 6 DEGREES WIDE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. AS TD-20E MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THIS NARROW COMFORT ZONE AND GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR BY 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A 35-40 KT TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY WAS HELD UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL DUE THE LATTER FORECAST BEING BASED ON THE MUCH FASTER BAMM MODEL...WHICH MOVES TD-20E OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO THE STRONGER SHEAR MUCH SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 13.0N 113.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 13.3N 113.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 114.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 15.7N 116.3W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/0600Z 15.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ25 KNHC 110804 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ONE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202006 0900 UTC SAT NOV 11 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 113.0W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 113.0W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 13.3N 113.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.7N 116.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 15.0N 117.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPN31 PGTW 110900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 120.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 120.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 15.7N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 15.5N 116.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.6N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 16.1N 112.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 17.1N 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.9N 108.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.5N 107.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 119.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 111000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072100ZNOV2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ REF/A/MY/101121Z NOV 06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20E WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 12.9N 112.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 112.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 13.3N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.0N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.0N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.8N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.7N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.5N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 111000Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 113.0W. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 101121Z NOV 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 101130 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (ROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 110900 UTC 00HR 16.0N 119.9E 965HPA 38M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 15.8N 116.2E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 16.0N 112.8E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 16.6N 110.0E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 110900 *** WARNING 110900. WARNING VALID 120900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0620 CHEBI (0620) 960 HPA AT 16.2N 120.0E LUZON MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 15.5N 117.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 110900UTC 16.2N 120.0E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 120900UTC 15.5N 117.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 130600UTC 15.7N 115.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 140600UTC 16.4N 112.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 110600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 0600 11 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (CHEBI) (0620) WAS LOCATED BY LAND RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGHT TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO ONE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO ONE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 120600 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 130600 ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 110600 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 0600 11 NOV TYPHOON (CHEBI) (0620) WAS LOCATED BY LAND RADAR SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.9N 120.4E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI- CIRCLE 210KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTMTD CNTRAL PRESSURE 976 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 33MPS NEAR CNTER 25MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 210KMS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 120600 15.8N 117.0E A D AT 130600 15.7N 114.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH RPLL 110600 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 0600 11 NOV TYPHOON (CHEBI) (0620) WAS LOCATED BY LAND RADAR SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.9N 120.4E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI- CIRCLE 210KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTMTD CNTRAL PRESSURE 976 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 33MPS NEAR CNTER 25MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 210KMS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 120600 15.8N 117.0E A D AT 130600 15.7N 114.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTSS20 VHHH 111045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110900 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (109.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 111045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110900 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (109.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.