** WTSR20 WSSS 101800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 110000 UTC 00HR 16.0N 121.6E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 15.6N 117.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 15.3N 113.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 15.6N 110.6E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 110000UTC 15.9N 121.6E GOOD MOVE WSW 12KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 120000UTC 16.0N 118.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 130000UTC 16.0N 115.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 140000UTC 16.0N 111.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 110000 *** WARNING 110000. WARNING VALID 120000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0620 CHEBI (0620) 940 HPA AT 15.9N 121.6E LUZON MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 16.0N 118.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 16.0N 115.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 16.0N 111.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 110145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110000 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TY 0620 CHEBI (0620) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 110300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 121.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 121.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.7N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 15.6N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 15.7N 116.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.8N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.4N 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 17.4N 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.4N 109.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 121.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 110300 UTC 00HR 16.0N 121.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 110300UTC 16.1N 120.9E GOOD MOVE W 13KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 120300UTC 16.1N 117.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 130000UTC 16.0N 115.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 140000UTC 16.0N 111.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 110300 *** WARNING 110300. WARNING VALID 120300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0620 CHEBI (0620) 950 HPA AT 16.1N 120.9E LUZON MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 16.1N 117.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT80 EGRR 110500 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.11.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 106.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.11.2006 15.6N 106.8W WEAK 12UTC 11.11.2006 16.8N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.11.2006 17.0N 107.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.11.2006 18.6N 107.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.11.2006 18.6N 108.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.11.2006 19.3N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.11.2006 19.6N 110.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.11.2006 19.7N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.11.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110500 ** WTSS20 VHHH 110445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110300 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 110445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110300 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.