** WTSR20 WSSS 100600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 101200 UTC 00HR 16.2N 124.4E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 25KM/H P+24HR 15.5N 119.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 14.8N 115.3E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 14.0N 111.3E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 101200UTC 16.2N 124.2E GOOD MOVE W 13KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM NORTH 130NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 111200UTC 15.7N 120.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 121200UTC 14.7N 116.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 131200UTC 14.5N 112.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 101200 *** WARNING 101200. WARNING VALID 111200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0620 CHEBI (0620) 925 HPA AT 16.2N 124.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 15.7N 120.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 14.7N 116.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 14.5N 112.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 101345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 101200 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. ** WTPZ44 KNHC 101449 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 700 AM PST FRI NOV 10 2006 THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT RESUMED JUST AFTER 06 UTC HAS PERSISTED EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SO ROSA LIVES ON A LITTLE LONGER AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND NOT EXTENSIVE...HOWEVER...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THIS SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE. ACCORDINGLY THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS WEAKENING...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFDL STILL FORECASTS ROSA TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THAT MODEL HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS FORECAST INTENSITY AND LOSES THE CIRCULATION SOONER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...ANTICIPATES ROSA TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. ROSA IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE VERY QUICKLY...BUT ITS AVERAGE MOTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN ABOUT 325/3. ONCE THE CONVECTION IS SEPARATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BY THE SHEAR...THE CENTER OF EX-ROSA WILL PROBABLY BE PULLED MORE WESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IN BETWEEN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THIS IS THE SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...WHILE THE GFDL TAKES A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CYCLONE FARTHER NORTH. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG BUT A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 16.1N 106.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 16.5N 106.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 11/1200Z 16.9N 107.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.2N 108.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPH20 RPMM 101200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 09 AT 1200 10 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (CHEBI)(0620) WAS LOCATED BY LAND RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FIVE FOUR METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILO- METERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO TWO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 111200 ONE FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX EAST AND AT 121200 ONE FOUR POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPZ24 KNHC 101451 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 1500 UTC FRI NOV 10 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 106.1W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 106.1W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 16.5N 106.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.9N 107.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.2N 108.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 106.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 101500 UTC 00HR 16.2N 123.5E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 30KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 101200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 09 AT 1200 10 NOVEMBER TYPHOON(CHBI)(0620)WAS LOCATED BY LAND RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 16.1 NORTH 124.2 EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 06 MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 250 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIAMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUN WINDS 54 MPS NEAR CENTER 33 MPS WITHIN 100 KMS RADIUS 13 MPS WITHIN 250 KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 220 KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 111200 15.5 NORTH 118.6 EAST AND AT 121200 14.3 NORTH 114.0 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HRLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD END OF FORECAST= ** WTPH RPLL 101200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 09 AT 1200 10 NOVEMBER TYPHOON(CHBI)(0620)WAS LOCATED BY LAND RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 16.1 NORTH 124.2 EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 06 MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 250 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIAMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUN WINDS 54 MPS NEAR CENTER 33 MPS WITHIN 100 KMS RADIUS 13 MPS WITHIN 250 KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 220 KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 111200 15.5 NORTH 118.6 EAST AND AT 121200 14.3 NORTH 114.0 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HRLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD END OF FORECAST= ** WTPN31 PHNC 101600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (ROSA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 105.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 105.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.0N 106.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.3N 106.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.6N 106.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 101000Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 105.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z. // ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 101500UTC 16.2N 123.5E GOOD MOVE W 13KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM NORTH 130NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 111500UTC 15.7N 119.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 121200UTC 14.7N 116.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 131200UTC 14.5N 112.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 101500 *** WARNING 101500. WARNING VALID 111500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0620 CHEBI (0620) 925 HPA AT 16.2N 123.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 15.7N 119.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 101600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (ROSA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 105.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 105.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 16.5N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.9N 107.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.2N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 101200Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 105.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 8 FEET. AT 111012 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 361 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z. // ** WTPN31 PHNC 101600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (ROSA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 105.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 105.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 16.5N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.9N 107.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.2N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 101200Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 105.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 8 FEET. AT 101200Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 361 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z. // ** WTPQ20 VHHH 101645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 101500 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (123.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 101753 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.11.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 106.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.11.2006 16.3N 106.0W WEAK 00UTC 11.11.2006 15.6N 107.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.11.2006 16.7N 106.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.11.2006 18.1N 107.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.11.2006 18.9N 107.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.11.2006 18.9N 107.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.11.2006 19.0N 108.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.11.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 9.2N 115.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.11.2006 9.2N 115.8W WEAK 00UTC 12.11.2006 11.3N 115.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.11.2006 11.9N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.11.2006 12.5N 116.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.11.2006 12.6N 115.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.11.2006 12.2N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.11.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101753