** WTIN20 DEMS 100613 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 10-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ,WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY AND SOUTH ARABIAN SEA (.) THE WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 100600 UTC 00HR 16.2N 125.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 30KM/H P+24HR 15.7N 120.7E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 15.0N 117.8E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 14.3N 113.8E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 100600 *** WARNING 100600. WARNING VALID 110600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0620 CHEBI (0620) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 945 HPA AT 16.2N 125.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 15.1N 120.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 14.2N 116.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 13.9N 112.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0620 CHEBI (0620) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 100600UTC 16.2N 125.6E GOOD MOVE W 15KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 150NM NORTH 130NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 110600UTC 15.1N 120.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 120600UTC 14.2N 116.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 130600UTC 13.9N 112.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 100600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME STS 0620 CHEBI ANALYSIS POSITION 100600UTC 16.2N 125.6E MOVEMENT W 15KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 95KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 110600UTC 15.7N 121.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 95KT 48HR POSITION 120600UTC 15.0N 117.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 99KT 72HR POSITION 130600UTC 14.5N 114.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 99KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TY 0620 CHEBI (0620) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY DEVELOPED RAPIDLY DURING PAST 6 HOURS. TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 100808 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 100 AM PST FRI NOV 10 2006 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA IS RAPIDLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND MAY NOT EVEN BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY LONGER. HOWEVER...JUST IN CASE ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION FIRES OFF NEAR THE CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL ENTITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTER POSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BEST. A 10/0000Z TRMM OVERPASS ALONG WITH A 10/0042Z QUIKSCAT EDGE SWATH...BOTH OF WHICH CAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS ISSUED...SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD CENTER OF ROSA IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FURTHERMORE...THE CIRCULATION OF ROSA APPEARS TO BE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE LARGER DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE ROSA REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE OTHER DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC CONSENSUS MODELS. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 450 NMI SOUTHWEST OF ROSA. THE ENHANCED SHEAR PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND...AND PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IN THE LONGER TERM. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ROSA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER DISTURBANCE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.7N 105.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.0N 106.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 11/0600Z 16.3N 106.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.6N 106.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ24 KNHC 100808 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 0900 UTC FRI NOV 10 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.9W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.9W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.0N 106.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.3N 106.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.6N 106.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 100900 UTC 00HR 16.2N 124.9E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR W 25KM/H P+24HR 15.6N 120.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 14.9N 116.5E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 14.1N 112.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 100900 *** WARNING 100900. WARNING VALID 110900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0620 CHEBI (0620) 935 HPA AT 16.2N 124.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 15.2N 120.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 100900UTC 16.2N 124.9E GOOD MOVE W 14KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM NORTH 130NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 110900UTC 15.2N 120.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 120600UTC 14.2N 116.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 130600UTC 13.9N 112.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPQ20 VHHH 101045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 100900 UTC, TYPHOON CHEBI (0620) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.