** WTSR20 WSSS 091800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 100000 UTC 00HR 16.2N 127.2E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 200KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR W 25KM/H P+24HR 16.0N 122.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 15.6N 118.6E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 14.9N 115.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 100000 *** WARNING 100000. WARNING VALID 110000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0620 CHEBI (0620) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 16.1N 127.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 15.0N 121.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 14.1N 118.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 13.7N 113.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0620 CHEBI (0620) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 100000UTC 16.1N 127.2E GOOD MOVE W 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 140NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 110000UTC 15.0N 121.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 120000UTC 14.1N 118.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 130000UTC 13.7N 113.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 100000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME STS 0620 CHEBI ANALYSIS POSITION 100000UTC 16.1N 127.2E MOVEMENT W 13KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 110000UTC 15.5N 122.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 48HR POSITION 120000UTC 14.8N 118.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 130000UTC 14.3N 115.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 100300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 16.1N 127.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 127.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.0N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 16.0N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.8N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 15.6N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.9N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.0N 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 13.0N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 126.4E. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z,101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.// ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR STS 0620 CHEBI (0620) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100000 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CDO PATTERN HAS FORMED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 100237 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 700 PM PST THU NOV 09 2006 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A RATHER DISORGANIZED...SHEARED...TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING. SHIP A8GU7...QUALITY CONTROLLED FOR ACCURACY...REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10 KT WINDS WITH A 1009 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ABOUT 85 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THE SHIP REPORT AND THE 30 KT DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR AS THE PRIMARY INHIBITOR...WEAKENING THE DEPRESSION TO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST FSU UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE SHOWS A SIMILAR OUTCOME. IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FIX THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/4...DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE SHALLOW LAYER FLOW OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. ROSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN INCREASINGLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE/ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH REFLECT A SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 16.1N 105.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 16.9N 105.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 17.3N 106.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 12/0000Z 17.8N 106.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 13/0000Z 19.0N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTPZ24 KNHC 100237 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 0300 UTC FRI NOV 10 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 105.4W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 105.4W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 16.9N 105.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.3N 106.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 106.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.0N 107.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 100300 UTC 00HR 16.2N 126.4E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 230KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR W 30KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 100300 *** WARNING 100300. WARNING VALID 110300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0620 CHEBI (0620) 985 HPA AT 16.2N 126.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 15.3N 121.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 100300UTC 16.2N 126.4E GOOD MOVE W 15KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 140NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 110300UTC 15.3N 121.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 120000UTC 14.1N 118.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 130000UTC 13.7N 113.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPH RPLL 100000 *** TTT STORM WARNING 07 AT 0000 10 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHEBI) (0620) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON LAND RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO EAST FROMECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTGER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENYTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 11000 ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX EAST AT 120000 ONE FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE EAST AND AT 130000 ONE TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH RPLL 100000 *** TTT STORM WARNING 07 AT 0000 10 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHEBI) (0620) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON LAND RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO EAST FROMECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTGER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENYTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 11000 ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX EAST AT 120000 ONE FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE EAST AND AT 130000 ONE TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTNT80 EGRR 100506 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.11.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 105.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.11.2006 15.6N 105.4W WEAK 12UTC 10.11.2006 16.3N 105.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.11.2006 16.2N 106.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.11.2006 15.9N 106.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.11.2006 17.3N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.11.2006 17.2N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.11.2006 17.3N 107.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.11.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100506