** WTPQ20 BABJ 091800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 091800 UTC 00HR 16.1N 128.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR W 25KM/H P+24HR 16.2N 123.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 16.0N 119.0E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 15.6N 115.7E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 091800UTC 16.1N 128.6E FAIR MOVE W 14KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 101800UTC 15.3N 123.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 111800UTC 14.8N 119.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 121800UTC 13.8N 114.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 091800 *** WARNING 091800. WARNING VALID 101800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0620 CHEBI (0620) 994 HPA AT 16.1N 128.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 15.3N 123.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 14.8N 119.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 13.8N 114.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPZ24 KNHC 092034 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 2100 UTC THU NOV 09 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.2N 105.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.6N 105.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.0N 106.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.5N 107.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 19.0N 108.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPN31 PGTW 092100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHEBI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 128.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 128.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 16.1N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.3N 123.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.2N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 15.8N 120.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.1N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.5N 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.6N 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 127.9E. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 091200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 06 AT 1800 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (CHEBI) (0620) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.9N 128.7E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 21MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101800 15.9N 123.4E AT 111800 15.9N 118.3E AND AT 121800 15.9N 113.2E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 091200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 06 AT 1800 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (CHEBI) (0620) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.9N 128.7E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 21MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101800 15.9N 123.4E AT 111800 15.9N 118.3E AND AT 121800 15.9N 113.2E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 092100 *** WARNING 092100. WARNING VALID 102100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0620 CHEBI (0620) 992 HPA AT 16.0N 127.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 14.8N 122.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 092100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 092100UTC 16.0N 127.9E FAIR MOVE W 15KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 102100UTC 14.8N 122.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 111800UTC 14.8N 119.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 121800UTC 13.8N 114.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 091800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 06 AT 1800 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (CHEBI)(0620) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101800 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR EAST AT 111800 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AND AT 121800 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA=