** WTSR20 WSSS 090600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 091200 *** WARNING 091200. WARNING VALID 101200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0620 CHEBI (0620) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 15.9N 130.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 15.5N 124.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 15.1N 120.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 14.6N 116.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 091200UTC 15.9N 130.1E FAIR MOVE W 11KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 101200UTC 15.5N 124.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 111200UTC 15.1N 120.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 121200UTC 14.6N 116.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 091200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHEBI 0621 (0620) INITIAL TIME 091200 UTC 00HR 15.9N 130.1E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 16.0N 125.4E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 15.8N 120.7E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 15.1N 116.7E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 091200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0620 CHEBI ANALYSIS POSITION 091200UTC 15.9N 130.1E MOVEMENT W 11KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 33KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 101200UTC 15.3N 124.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT 48HR POSITION 111200UTC 15.0N 120.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT 72HR POSITION 121200UTC 14.4N 116.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ24 KNHC 091431 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 1500 UTC THU NOV 09 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.4W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.4W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.8N 106.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.2N 106.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.6N 107.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.0N 108.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 18.0N 108.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPZ44 KNHC 091432 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 700 AM PST THU NOV 09 2006 DESPITE EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTER AND PERSISTED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. THE EXPERIMENTAL OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT HIGHER. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS. EVEN THOUGH ROSA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING BEYOND 12 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...ROSA IS EXPECTED TO BE A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW WITH GRADUAL SPIN DOWN THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION...ROSA HAS BEEN STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYERED FLOW DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS RESULTING IN AN ALMOST DUE NORTH MOTION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE YIELDING 340/6. ROSA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE IN 12-24 HOURS RESULTING IN A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE SHALLOW AND DEEP-LAYER STEERING. THIS INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW FOR SURE EXACTLY HOW LONG DEEP CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. SHOULD THE CYCLONE BE ABLE TO HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...A TRACK MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LANDFALL ALONG SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 15.7N 105.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 16.4N 105.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 16.8N 106.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 17.2N 106.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 17.6N 107.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 12/1200Z 18.0N 108.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 108.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPH RPLL 091200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 05 AT 1200 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (CHEBI) (0620) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.7N 130.0E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 18MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101200 15.7N 124.4E AT 111200 15.7N 118.7E AND AT 121200 15.7N 113.2E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 091200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 05 AT 1200 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (CHEBI) (0620) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.7N 130.0E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 18MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101200 15.7N 124.4E AT 111200 15.7N 118.7E AND AT 121200 15.7N 113.2E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0620 CHEBI (0620) ANALYSIS PSTN 091500UTC 16.0N 129.5E FAIR MOVE W 11KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 101500UTC 15.5N 124.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 111200UTC 15.1N 120.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 121200UTC 14.6N 116.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 091200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 05 AT 1200 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (CHEBI) {0620} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLIE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101200 ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR EAST AT 111200 ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 121200 ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 091600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (ROSA) WARNING NR 006 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 105.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 105.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.4N 105.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.8N 106.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.2N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.6N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 18.0N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 18.0N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 091600Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 105.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 091705 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.11.2006 TROPICAL STORM ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 104.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.11.2006 16.0N 104.9W WEAK 00UTC 10.11.2006 15.6N 105.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.11.2006 16.7N 104.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.11.2006 16.0N 105.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.11.2006 16.6N 105.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.11.2006 16.5N 106.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.11.2006 18.1N 106.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.11.2006 19.7N 106.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.11.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 091705