** WTIN20 DEMS 090630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 09-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ,WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY AND EAST ARABIAN SEA THE WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 090600UTC 15.9N 131.3E FAIR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 100600UTC 15.9N 125.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 15.9N 131.3E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 090600 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ24 KNHC 090801 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 0900 UTC THU NOV 09 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 105.4W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 105.4W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.4N 105.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.4N 106.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.6N 107.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.8N 107.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 16.7N 107.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ44 KNHC 090802 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 100 AM PST THU NOV 09 2006 DESPITE EXPERIENCING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ...THE CONVECTIVE CONSTRUCTIVE OF TD-19E HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. A PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...WITH A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C HAVING DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/05 BASED ON MICROWAVE AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19E IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS..THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT COMES UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE BY A LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS NEAR TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST SHIFTS EASTWARD. TD-19E HAS ABOUT A 12H-18H WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO POSSIBLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS BELOW THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 14.8N 105.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 15.4N 105.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 16.4N 106.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 16.6N 107.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 12/0600Z 16.8N 107.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 13/0600Z 16.7N 107.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPH20 RPMM 090600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 04 AT 0600 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 100600 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST AT 110600 ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO EAST AND AT 120600 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 090900UTC 15.7N 130.7E FAIR MOVE W 13KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 100900UTC 15.4N 124.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPH RPLL 090600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 04 AT 0600 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINTS EVEN NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 100600 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAT AT 110600 ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO EAST AND AT 120600 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEEATHER REPROTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTPH RPLL 090600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 04 AT 0600 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINTS EVEN NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 100600 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAT AT 110600 ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO EAST AND AT 120600 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEEATHER REPROTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA