** WTSR20 WSSS 081800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN31 PGTW 090300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081051ZNOV2006// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 132.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 132.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 15.7N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 15.8N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 15.9N 125.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 16.0N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 16.1N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 132.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 081051Z NOV 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 081100) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.// ** WTPZ44 KNHC 090256 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 700 PM PST WED NOV 08 2006 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THROUGH ABOUT 0000 UTC THIS EVENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THEN...A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. DESPITE THE CURRENT SHEAR...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT WEAKEN THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS....THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY A LITTLE BELOW THE GUIDANCE. UNLESS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A LATE AFTERNOON AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS HAS HELPED TO PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/6...WHICH IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS EXTREMELY DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET KEEPING A MORE VERTICALLY-COHERENT SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS THE CYCLONE WEAK AND PREDICTS IT WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING CLOSELY WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSER TO THE GFS AND SHALLOW BAM SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 14.6N 105.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 15.3N 105.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 16.1N 106.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 16.5N 106.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 16.8N 107.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 13/0000Z 17.0N 107.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN ** WTPZ24 KNHC 090256 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 0300 UTC THU NOV 09 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.1W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.1W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 104.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.3N 105.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.1N 106.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.5N 106.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 16.8N 107.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 17.0N 107.8W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 105.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ** WTPH20 RPMM 090000 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 0000 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSTIONS AT 100000 ONE SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SIX EAST AT 110000 ONE SEVEN POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST ANDAT 120000 ONE EIGHT POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPH RPLL 090000 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 0000 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAT TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 10000 ONE SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SIX EAST AT 110000 ONE SEVEN POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 120000 ONE EIGHT POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH RPLL 090000 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 0000 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAT TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 10000 ONE SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SIX EAST AT 110000 ONE SEVEN POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 120000 ONE EIGHT POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTNT80 EGRR 090556 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.11.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 103.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.11.2006 14.7N 103.9W WEAK 12UTC 09.11.2006 15.5N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.11.2006 16.5N 105.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.11.2006 17.0N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.11.2006 16.0N 105.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.11.2006 15.0N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.11.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 090556