** WTNT80 EGRR 081800 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.11.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 104.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.11.2006 12.5N 104.3W WEAK 00UTC 09.11.2006 14.4N 103.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.11.2006 15.9N 103.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.11.2006 16.7N 103.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.11.2006 17.0N 103.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.11.2006 15.2N 104.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.11.2006 15.2N 103.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.11.2006 15.8N 104.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.11.2006 17.1N 105.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.11.2006 17.9N 106.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.11.2006 18.5N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.11.2006 18.6N 107.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.11.2006 14.1N 110.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 081800 ** WTPZ44 KNHC 082044 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 100 PM PST WED NOV 08 2006 AFTER BEING VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EARLIER TODAY... THE DEPRESSION'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS FALLEN APART DURING THE DAY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DISPLACED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOOTING OUTWARD TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF 12 TO 24 HOURS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THE CURRENT POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING DESPITE 30 KT OF FORECAST WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT SURVIVE SUCH STRONG SHEAR...AND IT COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE. AN EARLIER TRMM PASS HELPED TO FORM AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/6. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING IN GENERALLY NORTHWARD DIRECTION... RESPONDING TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. HOWEVER THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STAY A VERTICALLY-COHERENT SYSTEM DESPITE STRONG SHEAR. SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BEGIN DECOUPLING LATER IN THE PERIOD DUE TO THE SHEAR...I HAVE OPTED TO STAY ON THE FAR LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...GFS... AND BAM SHALLOW MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 14.3N 104.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 15.1N 104.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 15.9N 105.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 16.4N 105.7W 35 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 16.6N 106.1W 30 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 16.8N 106.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 13/1800Z 17.0N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ** WTPZ24 KNHC 082045 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 2100 UTC WED NOV 08 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 104.3W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 104.3W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 104.2W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.1N 104.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.9N 105.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.6N 106.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.8N 106.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N 107.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ** WTPH RPLL 081800 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 1800 08 NOVEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 16.0N 134.0E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 04MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 091800 17.7N 130.5E AT 101800 19.4N 127.0E AND AT 111800 21.1N 123.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 081800 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 1800 08 NOVEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 16.0N 134.0E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 04MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 091800 17.7N 130.5E AT 101800 19.4N 127.0E AND AT 111800 21.1N 123.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH20 RPMM 081800 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 1800 08 NOVEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BSED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEA WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 091800 0NE SEVEN POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT EAST AT 101800 ONE NINE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 111800 TWO ONE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA=