** WTSR20 WSSS 080600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 081429 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 700 AM PST WED NOV 08 2006 THE VESSEL 4XGS LOCATED ABOUT 60 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER REPORTED 28 KT WINDS AT 1200 UTC...ALTHOUGH AN EARLIER QUALITY CONTROL CHECK INDICATED THAT THE SHIP'S WINDS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE HIGH. A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE INFLATED DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION. NONETHELESS THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST TO ITS NORTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST GFDL FORECAST. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL POSITION REQUIRES SOME RELOCATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. SOME ADDITIONAL RELOCATION MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN MORE VISIBLE IMAGES BECOME AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 325/6. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG IT BECOMES. A BROAD TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO DROP INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD LIKELY TURN A VERTICALLY-COHERENT SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHEAST. THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT I BELIEVE ITS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A LITTLE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE SHEARED OFF IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE MOVE LITTLE BY DAYS 3-5...IF IT SURVIVES THAT LONG. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 13.6N 104.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 14.3N 104.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 15.3N 105.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 15.9N 106.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 16.2N 107.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 12/1200Z 16.5N 108.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 108.5W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ24 KNHC 081429 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 1500 UTC WED NOV 08 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 104.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 104.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.3N 104.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.3N 105.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.9N 106.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.2N 107.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 16.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 16.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPN31 PHNC 081600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 104.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 104.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 14.3N 104.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 15.3N 105.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 15.9N 106.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.2N 107.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.5N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 16.5N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.5N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 081200Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 104.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 10 FEET. AT 110812 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 319 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082200Z, 090400Z, 091000Z AND 091600Z.//