** WTNT80 EGRR 080603 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.11.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.1N 105.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.11.2006 12.1N 105.0W WEAK 12UTC 08.11.2006 12.4N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.11.2006 13.6N 104.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.11.2006 14.8N 103.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.11.2006 15.9N 103.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.11.2006 15.3N 103.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.11.2006 15.4N 103.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.11.2006 15.9N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.11.2006 15.9N 105.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.11.2006 17.4N 106.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.11.2006 17.9N 107.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.11.2006 18.3N 107.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.11.2006 18.9N 108.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 080603 ** WTIN20 DEMS 080615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 08-11-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH,CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) THE WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 080809 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 0900 UTC WED NOV 08 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 104.5W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 104.5W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 104.2W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.6N 105.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.5N 106.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.0N 107.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.3N 107.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 15.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 104.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ44 KNHC 080834 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 200 AM PDT WED NOV 08 2006 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 345 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 08/0600Z WIND REPORT OF 26 KT FROM SHIP WTDK LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT ...ALTHOUGH QUALITY CONTROL CHECKS SUGGEST THAT BOTH THE WIND AND PRESSURE VALUES HAVE BEEN RUNNING JUST A LITTLE HIGH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER TRICKY AND THE FUTURE MOTION WILL BE DETERMINED STRONGLY BY HOW MUCH ORGANIZATION THIS SYSTEM ACQUIRES. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE IT IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SOLUTION WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36-48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE TD-19E IS LOCATED BENEATH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND REGIME. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING. ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES ABOUT 15N LATITUDE... SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER HOSTILE AND GRADUALLY INDUCE WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IF TD-19E REMAINS SOUTH OF 15N LIKE THE GFS...GFDL...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...THEN LESS WEAKENING THAN FORECAST COULD RESULT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 12.7N 104.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 13.6N 105.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 14.5N 106.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 09/1800Z 15.0N 107.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 10/0600Z 15.3N 107.9W 45 KT 72HR VT 11/0600Z 15.5N 108.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 12/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 13/0600Z 15.0N 108.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPN31 PHNC 081000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072100ZNOV2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 12.7N 104.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 104.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 13.6N 105.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 14.5N 106.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 15.0N 107.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 15.3N 107.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 15.5N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 15.0N 109.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.0N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 081000Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 104.8W. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 072330Z NOV 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 072330 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z. // ** WTPN21 PGTW 081100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/081621ZOCT2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 136.5E TO 17.8N 127.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 081000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 136.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 137.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 915 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER. A 080826Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES THAT SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE 08/00Z 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET, OVER TAIWAN AND EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEAST TO HONSHU. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE IN LARGE PART TO INCREASED INTER- ACTION WITH THE TROUGH SITUATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER, OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 091100Z.//