** WTIN20 DEMS 050615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-11-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) THE SOUTH WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 050600UTC 15.3N 114.7E FAIR MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 060600UTC 14.8N 113.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 070600UTC 14.2N 112.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 050600 *** WARNING 050600. WARNING VALID 060600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1000 HPA AT 15.3N 114.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 14.8N 113.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 14.2N 112.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 050600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19 NAME TS 0619 CIMARON ANALYSIS POSITION 050600UTC 15.3N 114.7E MOVEMENT WSW 5KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 060600UTC 14.5N 113.3E WITHIN 70NM PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT 48HR POSITION 070600UTC 14.1N 112.1E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 050745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 050600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 050745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 050600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 050900UTC 15.1N 114.6E FAIR MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 060900UTC 14.7N 113.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 070600UTC 14.2N 112.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 051045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 050900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 051045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 050900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA.