** WTSR20 WSSS 041800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 050000 UTC 00HR 15.3N 115.8E 1000HPA 15M/S P12HR SW 10KM/H P+24HR 14.2N 114.0E 1002HPA 13M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 050000 *** WARNING 050000. WARNING VALID 060000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1000 HPA AT 15.5N 115.2E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 15.1N 114.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 14.5N 112.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 050000UTC 15.5N 115.2E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 060000UTC 15.1N 114.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 070000UTC 14.5N 112.6E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 050145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 050000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (113.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 050145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 050000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (113.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 050300UTC 15.4N 115.0E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 060300UTC 14.9N 113.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 070000UTC 14.5N 112.6E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 050445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 050300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 050445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 050300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTNT80 EGRR 050516 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.11.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 15.5N 94.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.11.2006 9.0N 96.0W WEAK 00UTC 06.11.2006 9.1N 101.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.11.2006 8.8N 103.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.11.2006 10.2N 103.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.11.2006 12.0N 105.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.11.2006 11.4N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.11.2006 12.7N 106.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.11.2006 13.8N 106.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.11.2006 13.5N 106.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.11.2006 14.0N 107.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.11.2006 14.1N 107.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.11.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050516