** WTNT80 EGRR 040611 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.11.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 9.0N 101.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.11.2006 9.0N 101.0W WEAK 00UTC 06.11.2006 8.5N 104.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.11.2006 9.0N 104.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.11.2006 11.0N 105.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.11.2006 11.3N 105.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.11.2006 11.0N 108.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.11.2006 13.0N 108.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.11.2006 13.8N 109.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.11.2006 13.4N 110.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.11.2006 13.6N 111.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040611 ** WTJP21 RJTD 040600 *** WARNING 040600. WARNING VALID 050600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 994 HPA AT 15.8N 115.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTH SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 15.6N 115.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 15.4N 114.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 15.1N 113.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 040600UTC 15.8N 115.8E FAIR MOVE S SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 050600UTC 15.6N 115.2E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 060600UTC 15.4N 114.5E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 070600UTC 15.1N 113.7E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC 00HR 15.8N 115.9E 998HPA 16M/S P12HR SW 5KM/H P+24HR 14.8N 114.5E HPA M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 040600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17 NAME TS 0619 CIMARON ANALYSIS POSITION 040600UTC 15.8N 115.8E MOVEMENT S 5KT PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 050600UTC 15.0N 115.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT 48HR POSITION 060600UTC 14.4N 113.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT 72HR POSITION 070600UTC 13.7N 112.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL BE ALMOST STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 040745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 040745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040600 CCB *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC 00HR 15.8N 115.9E 998HPA 16M/S P12HR SW 5KM/H P+24HR 14.8N 114.5E 1002HPA 13M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 040900 UTC 00HR 15.8N 115.8E 998HPA 16M/S P12HR SW 5KM/H P+24HR 14.8N 114.7E 1002HPA 13M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 040900UTC 15.8N 115.8E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 050900UTC 15.5N 115.3E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 060600UTC 15.4N 114.5E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 070600UTC 15.1N 113.7E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 041045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (14.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 041045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (14.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA.