** WTSR20 WSSS 031800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC 00HR 16.4N 115.6E 998HPA 17M/S P12HR SW 10KM/H P+24HR 15.2N 114.5E 1002HPA 13M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC 00HR 16.4N 115.6E 998HPA 17M/S P12HR SW 10KM/H P+24HR 15.2N 114.5E 1002HPA 13M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 040000 *** WARNING 040000. WARNING VALID 050000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 994 HPA AT 16.0N 115.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 15.7N 114.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 15.3N 113.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 14.9N 112.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 040000UTC 16.0N 115.8E FAIR MOVE SSW 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 050000UTC 15.7N 114.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 060000UTC 15.3N 113.5E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 070000UTC 14.9N 112.7E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 040145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 040145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPN31 PGTW 040300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 034 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 115.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 115.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 16.4N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.2N 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 115.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 040300 UTC 00HR 16.2N 115.7E 998HPA 16M/S= P12HR SW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 040300UTC 16.0N 115.8E FAIR MOVE SSW 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 050300UTC 15.6N 114.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 060000UTC 15.3N 113.5E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 070000UTC 14.9N 112.7E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 040445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS. AT 040300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 040445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS. AT 040300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTIN20 DEMS 040535 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04-10-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) THE WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ??????????