** WTSR20 WSSS 030600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 031200 *** WARNING 031200. WARNING VALID 041200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 985 HPA AT 17.1N 116.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 16.5N 115.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 16.2N 114.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 16.1N 114.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 031200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 031200UTC 17.1N 116.3E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 041200UTC 16.5N 115.7E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 051200UTC 16.2N 114.9E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 061200UTC 16.1N 114.3E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 031200 UTC 00HR 17.1N 116.4E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H P+24HR 15.3N 115.1E 998HPA 16M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 031300 UTC 00HR 17.1N 116.3E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 031345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS. AT 031200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 031345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS. AT 031200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 031400 UTC 00HR 17.0N 116.3E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 031500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 032 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 116.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 116.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.4N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 15.7N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 115.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN EARLIER BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE WEAKENIING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DISSIPATED, AND A 031029Z SSMI PASS NOW DEPICTS A CIRCULATION LACKING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 031500 UTC 00HR 17.0N 116.2E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 031500 *** WARNING 031500. WARNING VALID 041500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 985 HPA AT 16.8N 116.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 16.4N 115.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 031500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 031500UTC 16.8N 116.1E FAIR MOVE SSW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 041500UTC 16.4N 115.5E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 051200UTC 16.2N 114.9E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 061200UTC 16.1N 114.3E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 031600 UTC 00HR 16.9N 116.2E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 031645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 031500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (116.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051500 UTC ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (14.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 031645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 031500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (116.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051500 UTC ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (14.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTNT80 EGRR 031705 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.11.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 7.3N 101.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.11.2006 7.3N 101.3W WEAK 00UTC 06.11.2006 9.1N 101.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.11.2006 9.9N 100.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.11.2006 10.8N 101.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.11.2006 11.4N 102.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.11.2006 11.8N 103.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.11.2006 11.9N 105.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.11.2006 12.1N 106.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.11.2006 12.3N 105.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 031705 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST^M TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 031500 UTC^M 00HR 17.0N 116.2E 990HPA 20M/S^M 30KTS 250KM^M P12HR SW 10KM/H=^M ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 031700 UTC 00HR 16.8N 116.2E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H=