** WTPQ20 BABJ 030600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 030600 UTC 00HR 17.3N 116.4E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H P+24HR 16.0N 115.0E 998HPA 16M/S P+48HR 15.0N 114.0E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 030600UTC 17.3N 116.4E FAIR MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 35NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 040600UTC 16.2N 115.0E 80NM 70% MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 050600UTC 15.4N 113.6E 150NM 70% MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 060600UTC 14.3N 112.6E 220NM 70% MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 030600 *** WARNING 030600. WARNING VALID 040600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 980 HPA AT 17.3N 116.4E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 35 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 16.2N 115.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 15.4N 113.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 14.3N 112.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 030655 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) THE WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTKO20 RKSL 030600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15 NAME STS 0619 CIMARON ANALYSIS POSITION 030600UTC 17.3N 116.4E MOVEMENT WSW 5KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 52KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 040600UTC 16.4N 115.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 49KT 48HR POSITION 050600UTC 15.4N 114.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT 72HR POSITION 060600UTC 14.0N 112.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR STS 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME WARMER FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 030700 UTC 00HR 17.3N 116.4E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 030745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (14.7 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 030745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (14.7 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 030800 UTC 00HR 17.3N 116.3E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 030900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 031 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 17.3N 116.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 116.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 16.5N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.7N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 15.1N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 116.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- WARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 030900 UTC 00HR 17.2N 116.3E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H P+24HR 16.0N 114.7E 998HPA 16M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 030900 *** WARNING 030900. WARNING VALID 040900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 980 HPA AT 17.2N 116.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 35 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 16.3N 115.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 030900UTC 17.2N 116.3E FAIR MOVE SSW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 35NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 040900UTC 16.3N 115.4E 80NM 70% MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 050600UTC 15.4N 113.6E 150NM 70% MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 060600UTC 14.3N 112.6E 220NM 70% MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 031000 UTC 00HR 17.2N 116.3E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 031045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (14.4 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (113.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 031045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (14.4 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (113.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 031100 UTC 00HR 17.2N 116.4E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H=