** WTSR20 WSSS 021800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSR20 WSSS 021800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC 00HR 17.7N 116.7E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC 00HR 17.7N 116.7E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H P+24HR 17.0N 115.5E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 16.2N 114.3E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 030000 *** WARNING 030000. WARNING VALID 040000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 975 HPA AT 17.5N 116.7E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 35 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 16.3N 114.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 15.4N 113.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 14.4N 112.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 030000UTC 17.5N 116.7E FAIR MOVE S 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 35NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 040000UTC 16.3N 114.6E 80NM 70% MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 050000UTC 15.4N 113.7E 150NM 70% MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 060000UTC 14.4N 112.7E 220NM 70% MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 030100 UTC 00HR 17.6N 116.7E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR STS 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. STS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME WARMER FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 030145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (14.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (111.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 030145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (14.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (111.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 030300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 116.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 116.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 17.2N 116.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.7N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 16.3N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 116.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 030200 UTC 00HR 17.5N 116.6E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 030300 UTC 00HR 17.5N 116.6E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 030300UTC 17.5N 116.5E FAIR MOVE S 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 35NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 040300UTC 16.2N 114.7E 80NM 70% MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 050000UTC 15.4N 113.7E 150NM 70% MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 060000UTC 14.4N 112.7E 220NM 70% MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 030300 *** WARNING 030300. WARNING VALID 040300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 975 HPA AT 17.5N 116.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTH 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 35 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 16.2N 114.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 030400 UTC 00HR 17.4N 116.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 030445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 030445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 030500 UTC 00HR 17.4N 116.4E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 10KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 030524 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.11.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 7.4N 102.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.11.2006 7.4N 102.7W WEAK 00UTC 06.11.2006 8.0N 103.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.11.2006 10.0N 103.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.11.2006 10.1N 105.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.11.2006 11.4N 105.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.11.2006 12.2N 106.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.11.2006 12.2N 106.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.11.2006 12.6N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030524