** WTPQ20 BABJ 020600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 020600 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.6E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY P+24HR 19.3N 116.3E 965HPA 35M/S P+48HR 19.5N 116.0E 988HPA 23M/S P+72HR 19.5N 115.6E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 020635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND COMMORIN AREAS (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 13 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 020600 *** WARNING 020600. WARNING VALID 030600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 955 HPA AT 19.1N 116.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 18.9N 116.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 18.8N 115.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 18.7N 115.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 020600UTC 19.1N 116.6E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 030600UTC 18.9N 116.2E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 040600UTC 18.8N 115.9E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 050600UTC 18.7N 115.5E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 020600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME TY 0619 CIMARON ANALYSIS POSITION 020600UTC 19.1N 116.6E MOVEMENT N 3KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 030600UTC 19.3N 115.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 040600UTC 19.4N 115.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 050600UTC 19.5N 114.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 020700 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.6E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTSS20 VHHH 020745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020600 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020600 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 020800 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.6E 965HPA 35M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTPN31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 116.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 116.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.2N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 19.5N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 19.6N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 19.3N 116.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 18.7N 115.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 18.1N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 116.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 020900 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.6E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY P+24HR 19.3N 116.3E 988HPA 23M/S P+48HR 19.5N 116.0E 995HPA 18M/S P+72HR 19.5N 115.6E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 020900UTC 19.1N 116.6E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 030900UTC 18.9N 116.3E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 040600UTC 18.8N 115.9E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 050600UTC 18.7N 115.5E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 020900 *** WARNING 020900. WARNING VALID 030900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 960 HPA AT 19.1N 116.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 18.9N 116.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 021000 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.6E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTSS20 VHHH 021045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020900 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHING SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 021045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020900 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHING SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 021100 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.6E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTSS20 VHHH 021045 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020900 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 021045 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020900 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.