** WTSR20 WSSS 011800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 020000 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.5E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY P+24HR 19.3N 116.2E 945HPA 45M/S P+48HR 19.5N 115.9E 955HPA 40M/S P+72HR 19.6N 115.6E 965HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 020000 *** WARNING 020000. WARNING VALID 030000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 945 HPA AT 19.1N 116.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 19.1N 116.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 19.2N 115.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 19.2N 115.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 020000UTC 19.1N 116.5E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 030000UTC 19.1N 116.2E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 040000UTC 19.2N 115.9E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 050000UTC 19.2N 115.5E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 020100 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.5E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTSS20 VHHH 020145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020000 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020000 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 020200 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.5E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTPN31 PGTW 020300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 116.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 116.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.2N 116.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 19.5N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 19.7N 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.0N 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 20.0N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 19.5N 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 116.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 020300 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.5E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTJP31 RJTD 020300 *** WARNING 020300. WARNING VALID 030300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 945 HPA AT 19.1N 116.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 19.1N 116.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 020300UTC 19.1N 116.6E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 030300UTC 19.1N 116.3E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 040000UTC 19.2N 115.9E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 050000UTC 19.2N 115.5E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 020400 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.6E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTSS20 VHHH 020445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020300 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020300 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 020500 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.6E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTNT80 EGRR 020508 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020508