** WTJP21 RJTD 011800 *** WARNING 011800. WARNING VALID 021800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 940 HPA AT 18.9N 116.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 18.9N 115.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 18.9N 115.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 18.8N 115.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 011800UTC 18.9N 116.2E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 021800UTC 18.9N 115.9E 90NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 031800UTC 18.9N 115.6E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 041800UTC 18.8N 115.1E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 011800 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.4E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY P+24HR 19.2N 116.0E 935HPA 50M/S P+48HR 19.0N 115.3E 945HPA 45M/S P+72HR 18.8N 114.1E 955HPA 40M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 011800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME TY 0619 CIMARON ANALYSIS POSITION 011800UTC 18.9N 116.2E MOVEMENT N 3KT PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 021800UTC 19.7N 115.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 031800UTC 19.8N 115.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 041800UTC 19.9N 114.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 011900 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.4E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTSS20 VHHH 011945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011800 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011800 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 012000 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.5E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTPN31 PGTW 012100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 116.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 116.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.3N 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.5N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 19.7N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 19.9N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 19.9N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 19.7N 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 116.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 22W REMAINS IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REFLECTS A SLOW, QUASISTATIONARY TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER INCREASING, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 22W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 012100 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.5E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY P+24HR 19.2N 116.0E 935HPA 50M/S P+48HR 19.1N 115.3E 945HPA 45M/S P+72HR 18.9N 114.1E 955HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 012100 *** WARNING 012100. WARNING VALID 022100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 940 HPA AT 19.1N 116.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 19.1N 115.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 012100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 012100UTC 19.1N 116.4E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 022100UTC 19.1N 115.9E 90NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 031800UTC 18.9N 115.6E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 041800UTC 18.8N 115.1E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 012200 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.5E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTSS20 VHHH 012245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 012100 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 012245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 012100 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 012300 UTC 00HR 19.1N 116.5E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY=