** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 18.9N 116.3E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 18.9N 116.3E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY P+24HR 19.5N 115.5E 935HPA 50M/S P+48HR 19.8N 114.7E 945HPA 45M/S P+72HR 20.1N 113.8E 955HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 010600 *** WARNING 010600. WARNING VALID 020600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 945 HPA AT 18.9N 116.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 19.0N 116.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 19.1N 115.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 19.1N 115.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 010600UTC 18.9N 116.2E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 020600UTC 19.0N 116.0E 90NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 030600UTC 19.1N 115.7E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 040600UTC 19.1N 115.2E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 010600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TY 0619 CIMARON ANALYSIS POSITION 010600UTC 18.9N 116.2E MOVEMENT N 3KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 020600UTC 20.0N 114.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 030600UTC 20.3N 113.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 040600UTC 20.2N 112.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION STEERING FLOW IS WEAK IN SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 010700 UTC 00HR 18.9N 116.3E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTIN20 DEMS 010720 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 01-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY,SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTH AND WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 13.0 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTSS20 VHHH 010745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010600 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 010745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010600 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 010800 UTC 00HR 18.9N 116.3E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 010900 UTC 00HR 18.9N 116.3E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY P+24HR 19.3N 115.9E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 19.8N 115.6E 945HPA 45M/S P+72HR 20.2N 115.2E 955HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 010900UTC 18.9N 116.2E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 020900UTC 19.0N 116.0E 90NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 030600UTC 19.1N 115.7E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 040600UTC 19.1N 115.2E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 010900 *** WARNING 010900. WARNING VALID 020900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 945 HPA AT 18.9N 116.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 19.0N 116.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 011000 UTC 00HR 19.0N 116.3E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTSS20 VHHH 011045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010900 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) AND IS FORECAST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010900 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) AND IS FORECAST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 011100 UTC 00HR 19.0N 116.3E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY=