** WTSR20 WSSS 311800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 010000 UTC 00HR 18.8N 116.2E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR WNW 5KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 010000 UTC 00HR 18.8N 116.2E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR WNW 5KM/H P+24HR 19.4N 115.5E 935HPA 50M/S P+48HR 19.7N 114.9E 945HPA 45M/S P+72HR 20.0N 113.8E 955HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 010000UTC 18.9N 116.2E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 020000UTC 19.2N 116.0E 90NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 030000UTC 19.5N 115.7E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 040000UTC 20.1N 115.2E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 010000 *** WARNING 010000. WARNING VALID 020000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 950 HPA AT 18.9N 116.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 19.2N 116.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 19.5N 115.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 20.1N 115.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 010100 UTC 00HR 18.8N 116.2E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR WNW 5KM/H= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION STEERING FLOW IS WEAK IN SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 010300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 18.7N 116.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 116.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 19.3N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.2N 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 21.0N 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.2N 113.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.9N 112.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 20.4N 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 19.6N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 115.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 010145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010000 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 010145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010000 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 010200 UTC 00HR 18.8N 116.2E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 010300 UTC 00HR 18.8N 116.2E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 010300UTC 18.9N 116.2E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 020300UTC 19.2N 116.0E 90NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 030000UTC 19.5N 115.7E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 040000UTC 20.1N 115.2E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 010300 *** WARNING 010300. WARNING VALID 020300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 950 HPA AT 18.9N 116.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 19.2N 116.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 010400 UTC 00HR 18.8N 116.2E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY= ** WTSS20 VHHH 010445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010300 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 010445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010300 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 010508 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.11.2006 NO TROPICAL STORMS ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE MODEL. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010508 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 010500 UTC 00HR 18.8N 116.2E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY=