** WTPQ20 RJTD 310600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 310600UTC 17.8N 116.8E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 010600UTC 17.9N 115.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 020600UTC 18.0N 114.5E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 030600UTC 18.4N 113.4E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 310600 *** WARNING 310600. WARNING VALID 010600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 950 HPA AT 17.8N 116.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 17.9N 115.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 18.0N 114.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 18.4N 113.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 310600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 310600 UTC 00HR 17.8N 116.7E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 18.3N 114.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 18.2N 112.3E 945HPA 45M/S P+72HR 17.6N 109.4E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 310600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TY 0619 CIMARON ANALYSIS POSITION 310600UTC 17.8N 116.8E MOVEMENT WNW 7KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 010600UTC 18.2N 114.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 87KT 48HR POSITION 020600UTC 18.3N 113.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 87KT 72HR POSITION 030600UTC 18.2N 112.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 310700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 310700 UTC 00HR 17.8N 116.7E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTIN20 DEMS 310730 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 31-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-EAST BAY, WEST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 12.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ30 RJTD 310600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 310600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 240630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 31-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-EAST BAY, WEST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 12.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTSS20 VHHH 310745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310600 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 310745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310600 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 310800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 310800 UTC 00HR 17.8N 116.7E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 310900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 310900 UTC 00HR 17.9N 116.7E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 18.4N 114.7E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 18.3N 112.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 17.7N 110.0E 945HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 310900 *** WARNING 310900. WARNING VALID 010900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 950 HPA AT 18.0N 116.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 17.9N 115.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 310900UTC 18.0N 116.7E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 010900UTC 17.9N 115.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 020600UTC 18.0N 114.5E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 030600UTC 18.4N 113.4E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 311000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 311000 UTC 00HR 18.0N 116.7E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 311045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310900 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 311045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310900 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 311100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 311100 UTC 00HR 18.3N 116.7E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR N 10KM/H=