** WTSR20 WSSS 301800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 310000 *** WARNING 310000. WARNING VALID 010000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 950 HPA AT 17.5N 117.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 17.5N 115.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 17.2N 113.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 17.6N 111.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 310000UTC 17.5N 117.5E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 010000UTC 17.5N 115.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 020000UTC 17.2N 113.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 030000UTC 17.6N 111.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 310000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 310000 UTC 00HR 17.3N 117.1E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 17.4N 114.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 17.1N 112.3E 945HPA 45M/S P+72HR 16.9N 110.0E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 310000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 310000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 310145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310000 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 310145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310000 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 310300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 117.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 117.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 18.2N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 18.4N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 18.4N 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.2N 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 17.5N 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.3N 106.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 14.9N 104.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 310300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 117.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 310300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 310300 UTC 00HR 17.5N 116.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPH20 RPMM 310000 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 17 (FINAL) AT 0000 31 OCTOBER TYPHOON(CIMAROM)(0619)WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 010000 ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE FOUR OINT THREE EAST AND AT 020000 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE FROM WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 310300UTC 17.5N 117.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 010300UTC 17.5N 115.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 020000UTC 17.2N 113.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 030000UTC 17.6N 111.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 310300 *** WARNING 310300. WARNING VALID 010300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 950 HPA AT 17.5N 117.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 17.5N 115.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT80 EGRR 310500 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.10.2006 NO TROPICAL STORMS ARE ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 310500 ** WTSS20 VHHH 310445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310300 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 310445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310300 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.